Starting Five v2.3
- danny52615
- Dec 30, 2025
- 10 min read
Daniel Waddleton
Dec 30, 2025
AS 2025 WINDS DOWN, so does another really fun year writing for The Fast Break Forum. For my final piece this year, I’m doing a quick look at the five teams most on my mind as we head into 2026. This has honestly been one of my favorite NBA seasons ever, and I’m excited to see what the new year brings. I’ve also linked a few of my favorite pieces from the 2025 year below if you missed them and wanted to check them out!
How the Rockets Built an Elite Offense... By Missing Shots?
Now for the final Starting Five -- and final post -- of 2025.
Thunder's Warts Showing
For the first two months of the season, Oklahoma City didn’t just look good, they looked untouchable. A 24-1 start. A record-breaking +17.2 net rating through 25 games. The conversations weren’t about whether they were contenders, they were about whether you’d rather take OKC or the entire rest of the league.
Since then, reality has crept back in. The Thunder are 4–4 over their last eight, including three losses to San Antonio, and some of the warts we saw from them last postseason have resurfaced.
The biggest one is shooting. As a group, they’re just not a great three point shooting team that is susceptible to running really cold some nights. Key rotation players who are essential to their elite defense -- Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace -- are all under 35% from three. Even the better shooters like Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins have seen their numbers dip under playoff pressure in the past, especially when teams dare them to shoot with more volume.
The second issue is a lack of secondary creation and just an overall playmaking feel. Between the shooting and the limited playmaking around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, we have seen the advantages he creates just die. Teams like Denver have found success going zone to shrink the court and gap Shai's drives, then recover short to the supporting cast and live with the results. If you can’t consistently punish those coverages with catch-and-shoots or keeping the advantage alive with playmaking against a tilted defense, the offense can bog down.
Jalen Williams is meant to be the pressure release -- the one guy who can also self create while fitting the defensive identity -- but he hasn’t quite looked like himself since the wrist injury. Isaiah Hartenstein helps as a passer and screen setter, but when he isn’t a scoring threat, teams can simply ignore him as a finisher. Ajay Mitchell brings juice on the ball, but he isn’t yet the defender the rest of this group is.
Really, this rotation is full of trade-offs. Isiah Joe and Mitchell help the offense but weaken the defense. Hartenstein gives you size but hurts spacing when he won’t look at the rim. Dort might be the best perimeter isolation defender in the league, but he brings very little offensively. While Caruso is an elite defender with some playmaking feel, teams will happily stash their best rim protector on him and guard OKC like this:
And finally... size. Especially when Hartenstein isn’t playable offensively, they get small in a hurry. Chet is 7'1 and an elite rim protector, but still light and physical teams can move him. After that, it’s a lot of strong but undersized wings: Dort (6'4), Caruso (6'5), Wallace (6'3), Wiggins (6'5), Shai (6'6). Jalen Williams was a 6'6 guard in college and now plays a majority of his minutes at the four. Against bigger ball-handlers this season -- Minnesota, San Antonio -- we’ve seen guys get to their spots without much disruption.
As dominant as OKC looked early, the schedule helped. They’ve faced the third-easiest slate so far, and Tankathon has them as the toughest remaining the rest of the way. According to Thinking Basketball they’re +17.1 (1st) per 100 against bottom-10 teams, yet -0.6 (7th) against top-10 teams. I think some of these warts were hidden behind the currents of a light schedule.
None of this means OKC can’t win the title. They absolutely can, but the idea this was a 2017-18 Warriors situation is incorrect. This team is getable in the spring.
Celtics’ Championship Equity
In an Eastern Conference that feels wildly unstable, there’s one team lurking in the shadows with real spring equity. Yes — it’s the team you desperately don’t want it to be.
Boston.
Many wrote them off after Jayson Tatum went down with an Achilles injury last May, followed by what were effectively salary-dumps of starters Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis in the offseason.
And yet, here they are: 19-12, third in the East, with a +6.6 net rating -- fifth-best in the league. The offense has carried them, ranking fourth overall despite missing major pieces. Despite the doubters, Mazzulla-ball is still a wagon.
Jaylen Brown has been the star, averaging career-bests in both volume and efficiency (29.7 PPG, +1.9 rTS%). He's currently clearing 1.0 PPP in isolation for the first time since 2021-22 and over 1.1 PPP as a pick-and-roll scorer/passer. Around him, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Anfernee Simons give Boston a three headed monster at guard who can dribble, shoot, and keep the offense alive.
Don't forget Neemias Queta, who should be right in the middle of the Most Improved Player race. They constantly keep Queta stationed in the middle of the floor as an on- and off-ball screener, connective playmaker, and roller. This clip sums up his value perfectly -- he catches in the middle, makes a quick decision, sets a solid screen, and then becomes a vertical threat.
Defensively, Boston hasn’t been as sharp, ranking 15th overall. They miss Holiday’s versatility, Horford’s switchability at the five, and last year’s rebounding backbone. They’re allowing the fourth-highest offensive rebound rate in the league after ranking 23rd a season ago.
The encouraging sign is December.
The Celtics have crept into the top 10 defensively this month, coinciding with increased minutes for 19-year-old Hugo González. Boston is 13.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively in his 341 minutes, and the film backs it up.
For a teenager, he’s absurdly polished. Always early on rotations. Blowing up actions on the ball. Relentless effort. His 6’6, 200-pound frame plays bigger than the measurements, holding his own against players like Pascal Siakam and Karl-Anthony Towns. Maybe the team has found another Jrue?
The reason I thought this team’s playoff ceiling could be capped was the Jayson Tatum–sized hole in the rotation. They lacked a wing who could matchup 1-5, switch everything, rebound at an elite level, and steady the offense as an advantage-creator and willing passer.
Now, it looks like he’s coming back.
If they get even 85-90% of last year’s Tatum, Boston can absolutely win the East. The sportsbooks are starting to notice -- quietly climbing to third in conference title odds.
Don't say The Fast Break Forum didn’t flag it early… go back and check my preseason predictions where it says “Eastern Conference Dark Horse."
. . .
Knicks’ Recent Ascent
Speaking of the East, the current favorites live in the Empire State.
There was real pressure on New York entering the season. Boston and Indiana appeared to have lost Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton for the season, Cleveland and Orlando haven't proven anything past April, and the cellar of the conference was as big as ever. If this core was ever breaking through, this was the window.
Heading into 2026, they look the part.
It starts with the head of the snake in Jalen Brunson, playing at a legitimate MVP level (29.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, +2.6 rTS%). New York is +12.4 per 100 possessions better offensively with him on the floor, posting a ridiculous 127.1 offensive rating in those minutes.
Then we get to the excitement of the wings on this team.
OG Anunoby has best defender in basketball nights. He can guard anyone while still providing near-40% shooting from the corners. Mikal Bridges finally looks like the player they paid a king’s ransom for -- a legitimate two-way wing and secondary handler (16.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 62.6 TS%). The teams swiss army knife Josh Hart sliding back into the starting lineup has quietly fueled their December surge. Brunson-Bridges-Hart-Anunoby-Towns lineups are +8.4 per 100 possessions this season.
The concern, as always, is postseason defense with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns sharing the floor. Both have become clear entry points. Teams will push the boundaries the Knicks are willing to go to protect Brunson. They’ll pull Towns into actions, stretch him laterally, and test his mobility. That tension isn’t going away.
But I still think this team is the most talented in the field, and they’re playing with real confidence and buy-in right now.
People love to clown the NBA Cup, but I think it mattered for this group. Winning high-leverage, one-off games against elite competition on a big stage builds belief. It felt less like a novelty and more like a launching pad toward their ultimate goals this season.
. . .
Hornets’ Interesting Roster
When wins are scarce and the market is small, it’s hard to stay in the national conversation. Yet this Hornets team -- with a unique-but-promising mix of talent -- has really caught my eye this season. For the first time in a long time, it feels like Charlotte might actually be building toward something of substance.
LaMelo Ball is the perfect headliner of a funky group. He’s one of the most polarizing players in the league: a 6’7 point guard with absurd vision, deep-range shooting, and handles the ball with this loose, improvisational creativity that can be flat-out electric. But this all comes at the cost of an infuriating shot selection, the off-ball defense that just… isn’t, and team stretches of basketball that are flat-out unserious.
Evaluators never seem to agree on Ball because he will put you through the whole roller-coaster in just a five minute stretch.
For me? I’m still holding my stock. Big guards who can dribble, pass, and shoot at that level don’t exactly grow on trees. And when he’s on the floor, the offense fires -- Charlotte posts a 122.2 offensive rating with him out there, 11 points better per 100 possessions than when he sits. A 36% usage rate in those minutes tells me he is driving offense at a high level when the ball is in his hands.
People love throwing LaMelo into the trade machines, imagining him in a cleaner, more mature environment. The more I watch this roster, the more I wonder if Charlotte might be growing that environment themselves.
That starts with a potentially foundation building 2025 draft class: Kon Knueppel, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Sion James. Knueppel is my current Rookie of the Year favorite (19.4 PPG, 63.2 TS%). Kalkbrenner has shown an ability to anchor the paint as a reliable drop big. James has been a versatile two-way piece, seemingly filling the gaps in whatever lineup he's apart of.
Then there’s Brandon Miller. Another guy I'm holding my pre-draft stock in. He’s averaged 18.5 across his first three seasons, flashing a vintage one-on-one scoring ability. The efficiency will come in my opinion. The defensive flashes are there, he just needs to become more attentive and consistent. At 23, I’m betting on the archetype -- two-way scoring wings win in this league.
Offensively, Charlotte already ranks 11th in the league. The issue is the 28th-ranked defense dragging everything down. That's where this team needs to improve the most, and with this recent draft class and what could be a franchise stabilizing off-season coming up, it feels possible.
Charlotte is betting that second-year head coach Charles Lee, a young core that’s finally starting to care about the right things, and -- eventually -- the right veterans layered on top (think Houston’s model) can shift the identity of the franchise.
. . .
Lakers’ Clunky Fit
Let’s finish 2025 with a simple one: this Lakers team -- despite the immense talent -- just isn’t that good.
They’re fifth in the West standing wise, yet you could argue they’re closer to seventh or eighth from a team standpoint depending on how much you trust Golden State's playoff viability. It really all starts with the stars.
Individually, you couldn’t ask for much more. Luka Dončić (33.7 / 8.5 / 8.7), Austin Reaves (26.6 / 5.2 / 6.3), and LeBron James (20.2 / 5.1 / 6.8 -- turning 41 years old today!) are all having admirable offensive seasons. Yet, it hasn’t translated to team success when they share the floor.
The Luka-Reaves-Hachimura-LeBron-Ayton starting lineup is -16.7 per 100 across 182 possessions. Any lineup featuring all three stars is -7.2 this season. Even last season, over a much larger sample, the trio was barely positive. The only consistently successful lineup since the Luka trade came with LeBron at the five, a real 3-and-D wing on the floor (Dorian Finney-Smith, now in Houston), and Rui slotted into his more natural role at the four.
There’s simply too much redundancy.
We’ve talked before about diminishing returns with certain skills, and on-ball creation is at the top of that list. These three stars don’t complement each other particularly well, especially with LeBron no longer able to ratchet up his defense for extended stretches the way he could even last season.
And the lack of role player talent is failing to fill the gaps.
These lineups are drawing dead on arrival -- no defensive backbone, none of the little-things boxes getting checked -- while three high-usage offensive players cannibalize each other’s value. Short of an identity-changing trade, it’s hard to see how this team realistically beats any of the West’s top contenders in a seven-game series.
Which brings us to the bigger picture.
The more likely outcome is that Rob Pelinka lets this season play out, allows LeBron to walk in the offseason, and begins rebuilding the roster around Luka. The Lakers will have over $100 million coming off the books in June. Some of that will likely go toward an Austin Reaves contract, but this appears to always of been the plan since the Luka trade.
That’s why I’m already thinking about the Lakers in 2026. I’m curious how they balance “contending” this season while preserving flexibility, and what they ultimately decide to do once the offseason hits.
The Lakers, good or not, are never boring.
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