NBA Christmas Special

Daniel Waddleton

Dec 25, 2025

---

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL MY READERS! This truly is one of the most wonderful times of the year, even for those who don’t live and breathe sports. It’s a season filled with family, friends, delicious food, and that warm, festive vibe that makes everything feel a little more special.

And of course for sports fans like us, Christmas time is a double gift. It comes wrapped in NFL playoff races, college football bowl season, and the excitement of college basketball gearing up for conference play.

Above all though, Christmas is synonymous with one of my favorite traditions: the NBA’s showcase of marquee matchups. Few things get me more excited than a full day of basketball featuring the league’s brightest stars and best teams. Unfortunately the NFL won’t keep its dirty paws off the NBA’s special day, so my Cowboys are also playing today which will require some multitasking, but we’ll get it done.

Get cozy because we have a lot for you in this piece. I’m going to dive into the ten teams playing today, recapping how their seasons have gone so far before giving my predictions on the games. Then I’ll hand out my one-third-of-the-season awards, and finish off with the biggest thing to keep an eye on heading into the middle third of the year... trades!

. . .

Christmas games preview and predictions

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks

A matchup many thought would be an Eastern Conference Finals preview when the schedule came out tips off the Christmas slate at Madison Square Garden.

It’s since been a disappointing start for Cleveland at 17-14. The biggest issue has been Darius Garland's play, who clearly isn’t 100% with the toe issue lingering. Then there's Jarret Allen playing the fewest minutes of his Cavs career, and it’s become common for Cleveland to close games with Evan Mobley at the five and Allen on the bench. The offense that ranked first last year has slipped to 11th, drifting back toward a Donovan-Mitchell-heavy attack. His numbers are awesome (30.7 PPG, 5.5 APG, 62.8 TS%), but the team was better when the offense was more egalitarian.

If there were ever a chance to kickstart their season, it’d be Christmas Day against one of the hottest teams in the league.

The Knicks are 20-9 overall and 7-3 in December, fresh off an NBA Cup title and riding the league’s second-best offense behind Jalen Brunson. He’s playing at an MVP-level (29.1 PPG, 6.6 APG), with the Knicks offense +12.4 per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, posting a scorching 127.1 offensive rating.

The wings have been huge too: OG Anunoby is flirting with an All-Star nod the way he’s impacted games on both ends, Mikal Bridges is finally looking like the guy they paid a king’s ransom for in 2024, and re-inserting Josh Hart into the starting lineup has sparked this December hot streak. The Brunson-Bridges-Hart-OG-Towns lineup is +8.4 per 100 possessions so far.

My biggest thing to watch in this one is how much both teams lean into their double-big looks -- Mobley/Allen for Cleveland and Karl Towns/Mitchell Robinson for New York -- and which can be more effective.

Prediction: New York Knicks

. . .

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Despite a 26-4 record the Thunder have lost both meetings to the Spurs this season, adding even more intrigue to a matchup between the West’s top two teams from a record standpoint. San Antonio has quietly climbed the standings -- much of it while Wemby was out with a calf strain -- and as much as his brilliance has driven headlines, the supporting cast has really been the story.

That group is headlined by their three-headed monster at guard: reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, and former All-NBA guard D’Aaron Fox. Add in Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet and this roster suddenly has real depth. They’ve blown past any reasonable preseason expectations and look like full-blown contenders heading into the middle third.

I don’t need to bore you with how good OKC is: they’re led by the reigning MVP in the middle of one of the great scoring seasons ever, their defense is 11.4 points better than league average, and they’re literally on pace to break the single-season point-differential record. But a few cracks -- even if minor -- have shown up lately: inconsistent outside shooting, limited second-side creation with an overall lack of playmaking feel, and some size issues, especially when Isaiah Hartenstein has those stretches where he won’t look at the rim. This isn’t the 2017 Warriors, they’re beatable.

My biggest thing to watch in this one is how OKC tries to pull Wemby away from the rim. San Antonio does a lot of pre-switching to keep him as the low man, and as a result he’s made offense really difficult for them. I’m also curious what kind of defensive intensity OKC brings after starting 0-2 against this team, and whether the Spurs’ guards can continue to endure that pressure as well as they have through the first two matchups.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

. . .

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

If the Christmas slate needed a reality check, here is it. A matchup between two teams that expected to be heavily in the Western Conference mix now just trying to stay alive.

It feels like Dallas already hit rock bottom, firing Nico Harrison after a 3-8 start while fans were making home games more hostile than road games. They’re currently 12-19, but a 6-4 December has at least stabilized things. That run coincides with Anthony Davis returning and rookie Ryan Nembhard entering the starting lineup, finally giving them a steady point guard and allowing Cooper Flagg to shift back to the wing, a far more natural role where he’s really taken off since.

They’re nowhere near that 2024 Finals group built perfectly around Luka Dončić, but there’s real post-Nico optimism. Kyrie Irving and Davis are still All-NBA level players you can either keep or flip for assets. They have a new centerpiece in Flagg (19.2 / 6.4 / 3.8 on 56.5% TS) who has superstar upside. And their early-to-mid 20s role-player core -- P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Dereck Lively II -- gives them optionality moving forward. Ignoring the Luka trade, Nico actually left behind a pretty strong roster.

Golden State doesn’t have as much future optimism to fall back on, which somehow puts them in an even darker spot. They’re 15-15, the second-oldest team in the league, and even with Stephen Curry playing at a First-Team-All-NBA level (28.7 / 4.2 / 4.3 on 64.2% TS) posting a team 119.5 offensive rating in his minutes, they’re still just 8th in the West.

The supporting cast just isn’t built for the grind of an 82-game season. Jimmy Butler, now 36, is still a very good players but the Warriors desperately need more than 11 shots a night from him. Draymond Green remains an elite defensive player, but that one-man-defense magic just isn’t as consistent anymore.

Moving farther down the roster Jonathan Kuminga has slid back into DNPs, Al Horford hasn’t brought much as the big free-agency move, De'Anthony Melton has struggled since returning, and while Brandon Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Pat Spencer have been bright spots, they clearly aren’t moving the needle. The Warriors are still 3rd in defense, but the offense has sunk into bottom-third territory which is almost unthinkable on a Curry team.

In this game I'm watching to see how Golden State attacks Anthony Davis lineups. He’s been their kryptonite over the years -- a big who can both play at the level and erase shots at the rim when teams top-lock Curry and other shooters.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

. . .

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers

This game will be the ultimate clash of styles. The Lakers play the “pretty game” -- Luka, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James carving up defenses with traditional spacing around them. The Rockets want to drag you into the mud -- physical wings, bruising bigs, second-chance offense, phone-booth scoring.

Give Ime Udoka a ton of credit. He’s built a top-five offense out of a defensive-slanted roster, powered by an absurd 41.1% offensive-rebound rate which would break an NBA record if it stands. Their stars Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün are perfect for this roster, as they can both score despite non-traditional spacing.

Defensively with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith, and Dorian Finney-Smith flying around and Şengün/Adams/Capela protecting the paint, Houston is quite the physically taxing team. They’re 17-10 and just 10 of those coming at home. With many more Toyota Center dates coming, an even higher climb feels likely.

The Lakers are dangerous at 18-10, driven by their three offensive engines -- Luka (33.7 / 8.5 / 8.7), Reaves (26.6 / 5.2 / 6.3), and LeBron (20.2 / 5.1 / 6.8) -- but there’s concern that record is misleading. Their net rating is just +0.2, compared to Houston’s +7.8 with almost the same record. Part of that is a 10-0 record in clutch games, which can be seen a strength (elite late-game creators) but also a warning (they’re not separating from teams).

Their issue separating from teams starts on defense, which ranks 25th in the league allowing over 118 points per 100 possessions. It’s also not very encouraging that the three-star lineups sit at –7.4 per 100 -- units that can feel redundant at times and really lack defensive presence, especially since the role players on this team aren’t exactly stoppers either.

What I’d keep an eye on in this matchup is how Houston defends the Lakers’ heavy pick-and-roll attack. The Lakers lead the league in P&R efficiency including passes -- while Houston largely plays drop with their bigs. Do the Rockets go to smaller, switch-heavy lineups, something we haven’t seen much this year but a card they can play? If they slow that action even a little, Houston has the horses to break them everywhere else.

Prediction: Houston Rockets

. . .

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

We close with what could’ve been the matchup of the day if not for an injury-ravaged Denver team down three starters: Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, and Aaron Gordon. Yet… they’re still 21-8 and 3rd in the West, thanks to the brilliance of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, along with what might be the best bench of the Jokić-Murray era.

Denver ranks 1st in offense at 124.1 -- the most efficient offense in NBA history -- and you could argue they still haven’t hit their ceiling given the injuries. The question, as always with Denver, is defense. They’ve slipped to 17th, but before the injuries hit, they were 2nd in the league with a 109.4 defensive rating through 11 games. If they can settle somewhere in the top 10 defensively as they get healthy, that’ll be more than enough to chase another title.

A silver lining: guys like Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones have been forced into bigger roles offensively, development that could really matter in May and June.

Minnesota has stabilized after a wobbly start and now sits 20–10, including an 8–2 December. Their starting group -- DiVincenzo-Edwards-McDaniels-Randle-Gobert -- owns a +10.9 net rating, and Naz Reid is right back in the Sixth Man of the Year mix.

The questions come after that. Conley is 38. Terence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark may not be fully ready. The Rob Dillingham swing has been a huge miss so far. Bones Hyland has been a bright spot, but are you really trusting him in a playoff series? If the Wolves fall short in the spring, it’ll likely be due to depth and lineup versatility. But this is not ever a team to count out given their big, physical nature, and the heights Anthony Edwards’ is capable fo reaching in any given stretch.

Thing to watch for tonight: how Denver defends Edwards. I’d expect doses of David Adelman’s zone looks we’ve seen used against guys like SGA -- but Minnesota has more dribble-pass-shoot ability around their star. And the iggest question of the night is whether Denver, down three starters, can score enough against this Wolves defense -- even with the greatest offensive player ever.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

. . .

1/3 of the Season Awards

Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokić

Once again, we’ve landed on a two-man MVP race between Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander.

Despite SGA being the best player on a 26–4 team -- putting up one of the most impressive individual scoring seasons ever (34.7 PTS/75 on +10.2 rTS%) -- I still believe, a third of the way through the season, that Jokić is the MVP. It’s not a slight to the reigning MVP; it’s more a testament to just how absurd this Jokić season has been.

Through 29 games, he’s averaging 28.9 PPG (7th), 12 RPG (1st), and 10.9 APG (1st) on 70.9% true shooting (+12.9 relative). The Nuggets are 12 points better per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor, posting a 129.9 offensive rating in those minutes, a number that would hold as the most efficient offense ever. Cleaning the Glass estimates that Denver plays like a 66-win team with him on the court, and a 33-win team without him, backed by a +15.9 on/off split.

As usual, the advanced metrics adore him: 2nd in Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), 1st in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), 1st in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), 1st in Win Shares (WS), 1st in Box Plus-Minus (BPM), and 2nd in LEBRON.

Somehow the three-time MVP has leveled up again. Denver is 21–8 heading into Christmas despite missing Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon for large stretches, and nobody has had a bigger footprint in that than everybody’s favorite Serbian.

Received Consideration: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Jalen Brunson

. . .

Rookie of the Year: Kon Knueppel

Cooper Flagg and Derrick Queen’s recent ascensions have turned this into a race that will likely go right until the end, but for now I’m going with who I deem the clear best rookie through a third of the season.

I really liked Knueppel pre-draft, and yet he still managed to surprise me with how pro-ready he was from day one. He plays like a seven-year vet: savvy passing, constant off-ball movement, great team defender, and just an overall rare feel for the game for a 20-year-old one-and-done.

He leads all rookies with 19.4 PPG on 63.2% true shooting, while also posting 5.2 RPG and 3.5 APG. On Dec. 22, he became the fastest player ever to reach 100 threes (29 games), breaking Lauri Markkanen’s previous record of 41 set in 2017-18. It tracks when you consider he’s shooting 41.9% from deep on nearly nine attempts per game, with the versatility to hit from any spot, angle, or catch.

What I loved most about Knueppel coming into the league is exactly what’s made him so good so early: he doesn’t need to dominate the ball to be incredibly efficient and impactful. He can fit in any team construct, as he’s demonstrating with this talented yet slightly weird Hornets group.

Received Consideration: Cooper Flagg, Derrick Queen

. . .

Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama

I originally leaned pro-65-game minimum for regular-season awards when the rule came out in 2023. But if we get to a scenario where Wemby plays 55-60 games and doesn’t win DPOY, that alone might be egregious enough to scrap the rule entirely.

We’re watching the most disruptive defensive player in NBA history at just 21 years old.

The measurables are absurd: 7’4”, 8-foot wingspan, 9’7” standing reach. Combine that with elite coordination, foot speed, and anticipation given his size and you get a defensive cheat code. Teams are scoring just 103.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor, proving to be the driver of that number with this +15.4 defensive rating on/off swing. For reference, OKC's coveted defensive group allows 104.1 points per 100.

His superpower is completely shutting off the water at the rim. Opponents take only 26.4% of their shots from the most valued area in basketball him on the court. His drop pick-and-roll coverage is unlike anything we’ve ever seen, with this superhuman ability to both contest pull-ups from the ball-handler and track the roller at the same time. The fact that he can simultaneously do this shouldn’t be possible.

He erases second-chance opportunities, with opponents grabbing just 26.2% of their misses in his minutes -- a mark that would rank 28th league-wide. And don’t forget the league-leading 3.1 blocks per game plus a steal a night.

There are a lot of great defensive players in this league. None of them are swimming in the same pool as Wemby right now. That isn’t their fault, it’s really hard to out-defend an alien.

Received Consideration: None

. . .

Sixth Man of the Year: Jaime Jaquez Jr.

This one wasn’t too tough for me. I’m landing on Jaquez Jr., the third-year forward out of UCLA who’s started just one game for Miami all season yet clearly feels like one of their most important players.

He’s averaging 15.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.7 APG on 57% TS. Miami is outscoring teams by +4.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and his +6.7 on/off is tied with Bam Adebayo for the highest mark on the roster.

The impact pops on film too. When Jaquez checks in, Miami uses him as one of the primary drivers of the offense with the fourth-highest overall usage on the team. That bruising, herky-jerky style gets two feet in the paint constantly (17.7 drives per-36), and he’s just as comfortable scoring with his fancy footwork and soft touch (71% at the rim) as he is playmaking out of it (4.7 assists a night). His play has been a main cog in keeping this non-pick-and-roll, drive-and-kick heavy offense functioning.

On top of that, he’s a versatile defender able to guard multiple positions with his toughness and physicality. He’s been the full package this season and more than deserving of regular-season honors.

Received Consideration: Naz Reid, Reed Sheppard, Ajay Mitchell

. . .

Most Improved Player: Jalen Duren

This might be the toughest award on the board because there are a lot of guys who can make a real case. I ultimately landed on Duren because he gives me the best combination of significant improvement without a massive role change.

Per Thinking Basketball, some of the breakout guys by the numbers this season have seen big jumps in offensive load like Ryan Rollins (+12.4), Jalen Johnson (+12.0), Deni Avdija (+11.1), and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+10.3). Duren’s usage bump of +6.3 is way more modest, yet his impact leap is right there with any of them.

Last season Detroit was just +0.2 points per 100 better with him on the floor. This year that number has exploded to +10.6. The Pistons outscore teams by a staggering 13.3 points per 100 in his over 1,600 possessions this season.

His growth as an on-ball creator has given the Pistons another source of offense outside of Cade Cunningham without having to burn assets to find that player. His +6.2 points-per-75 jump from last year ranks eighth in the league, he’s getting to the line twice as often, and he’s improved at the stripe from 66.9% to 72.4%.

You could absolutely talk me into other guys, either aforementioned or even established players like Austin Reaves or Jaylen Brown. My mind could honestly change on this one tomorrow, but today, it’s Duren.

Received Consideration: Ryan Rollins, Deni Avdija, Jalen Johnson, Neemias Queta, Reed Sheppard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Keyonte George, Austin Reaves.

. . .

Coach of the Year: Jordan Ott

This was another brutal one to narrow down. J.B. Bickerstaff and Mark Daigneault both have their teams as number-one seeds in their respective conferences. Darko Rajaković has taken a roster full of individual redundancy and limitations and crafted the perfect lineup combinations. Erik Spoelstra rebuilt Miami’s offense to better fit his defense-tilted group. Ime Udoka continues building an elite offensive attack with non-traditional spacing. Mike Brown has taken this same previously underachieving Knicks team and turned them into Eastern Conference favorites.

Yet for now, I’m giving the edge to the Phoenix Suns’ very own first-year head coach Jordan Ott.

The Suns are 16-13 and seventh in the West after entering the year with a 31.5-win projection. This team was supposed to be a shoo-in for a lottery spot. Instead, they’re winning with identity and buy-in.

Ott has flipped Phoenix’s DNA by prioritizing the possession and math battles night to night. The Suns are top-10 in offensive rebounding, opponent turnover rate, and three-point attempts/makes. None of this is a coincidence, that’s coaching emphasis showing up in the numbers.

Sure, the roster was probably getting slept on a bit. Even so, Ott deserves huge credit for identifying exactly where this team could win, drilling it daily, and also helping to optimize Devin Booker en route to an All-NBA-level season (25.4 PPG and 6.6 APG on 58.5% TS).

That’s why he gets the nod for now.

Received Consideration: Erik Spoelstra, Mark Daigneault, Darko Rajaković

. . .

Looking Ahead: NBA Trade Landscape

This middle third of the season is usually dominated by two things:

1. Trade buzz

2. People overreacting to top teams taking their foot off the gas after hot starts

We’ll spare you the latter. Let’s get straight to the trades because this winter could get weird.

The headline names are Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis, two guys who easily project as top-ten playoff-impact players and could theoretically be on the move. Right now both feel more likely to stay put until the summer, yet we just watched one of the best offensive players ever, at age 26, get traded nearly a year ago. We live in a post Luka-trade world, nothing should be deemed impossible.

Davis is the more interesting one to me because I think he’s actually gettable without totally detonating your franchise’s asset chest the way a Antetokounmpo trade would. A team like Atlanta makes a ton of sense: they have pieces to move, they can pair Davis with a legit pick-and-roll partner, and they’d surround him with modern spacing. That’s basically the exact ecosystem you’d want if your goal is to unlock “best-version-of-AD on offense.” Defensively, he immediately becomes the backbone for a roster that already has plus defenders, lifting the group to new heights even with a big negative like Young consuming 35+ minutes a night.

Like we already mentioned Antetokumnpo is more of a seismic-shift move. Could we see something wild like Cleveland panicking and putting Evan Mobley in a deal? It all sounds ridiculous until it doesn’t… right Nico!

New Orleans is worth monitoring. They’ve quietly won five of six, and without their own pick this year they don’t exactly have incentive to bottom out. But if they did look to move guys, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones could be huge playoff-swing pieces. Trey has that rare combo of elite outside shooting plus downhill rim pressure -- a basketball nerd’s dream -- and he’s also averaging a career-high 3.6 assists per game.

You'd know exactly what you’re getting from Herb: an elite defender who can hound the ball, chase shooters, be disruptive in passing lanes, and still hit 34%+ from deep, just enough that you at least have to respect the shot.

There’s the Clippers, who might have rotation guys available down the line. Someone like Kris Dunn or Derrick Jones Jr. probably cracks almost any playoff rotation in a defensive ace role, even if the offense can be shaky. Would they consider trading one of their Hall-of-Fame veterans James Harden or Kawhi Leonard?

Here’s a spicy one: do the Kings consider moving Domantas Sabonis? A lot has been made of his viability as a five due to his poor rim protection numbers, but it’s undeniable he’s one of the best middle-of-the-floor offensive hubs in the league. Few guys can come in and immediately grease the wheels of a stagnant offense quite like Sabonis could.

The next month or so will be telling on what direction Portland decides to pivot. They have been vocal about wanting to be a play-in team, but it might be a year early after injuries to their two point guards Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson. Jerami Grant could be a fifth-man/high-leverage bench addition for a contender, and Robert Williams III -- even if he’s only a 15-minute-a-night guy at this point -- is still a viable defensive anchor and offensive vertical threat and short-roll playmaker when healthy.

One of my favorite potential trade candidates that hasn’t been talked about nearly enough… how about Michael Porter Jr.?

I’ll admit, even as somebody who loves watching Denver, I kind of overlooked just how A+++ of a shooter he really was. I’m always a little skeptical of big box-score numbers on a team as rough as this Nets one, but there’s no denying this: Porter Jr. has proven, even outside that Denver machine, he’s a microwave scorer for any team that trades for him.

Yeah, he can be frustrating sometimes with the shot selection and defensive motor. But when he’s locked in, he’s an elite rebounder, can provide weakside rim protection, and has already proven in Denver that he’s willing to scale down offensively for the betterment of the team. He’s never going to be great at the whole “dribbling the ball” thing, but if you need scoring and spacing on the wing without adding a defensive liability, Porter could be a massive swing piece for a fringe contender.

With all this talk about sellers, how about who buys at the deadline?

I look at a team like the Lakers, who need someone to guard the ball. Detroit could really use another ball-handler. Orlando should never say no to more shooting. Overachieving Phoenix might decide to get aggressive and add offense. If Boston smells blood in the water, they could look to add a big. I could see Indiana try to add with 2026-27 in mind. Minnesota would basically take anybody who could give them 15 minutes in a playoff series.

It should be a fun trade season. Stay locked in with The Fast Break Forum because we’ll be all over it.