Starting Five v7
- danny52615
- Mar 19
- 11 min read
Updated: Apr 4
Daniel Waddleton
Mar 19, 2025
NOT SURE ABOUT you, but I love the idea of one more Starting Five before March Madness kicks off tomorrow! Here's our topics.
The Volatility of the Malik Beasley Archetype
Nobody has received more credit for the Pistons' incredible turnaround this season than Cade Cunningham, who earned an All-Star nod as the engine of the 38-31 Detroit Pistons.
But there’s another player getting a ton of praise for the success, key contributor Malik Beasley, signed for just one year at $6 million in the offseason.
Detroit’s offense struggled with spacing last year due to a lack of reliable three-point shooting, and Beasley has been a godsend in that regard. He’s averaging 16.2 points per game, powered by four made threes a night at over 40%. Only Anthony Edwards (271) has made more triples this season than Beasley.
Beyond just being a great spot-up shooter, Beasley has excelled as a movement shooter, flying off screens and constantly putting strain on defenses.
So what’s the dilemma? Well, archetypes like Beasley’s often thrive in the regular season but become much more volatile in a postseason setting.
Let’s rewind to last year when the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns were preparing to take on the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. Just days before the series, Suns guard Grayson Allen was awarded a four-year, $70 million contract extension with a player option.
At the time, it seemed well-deserved. He had just averaged 13.5 points per game as the team’s starting two-guard, mostly thanks to his 2.7 made threes per game at an absurd 46.1% clip. He was a crucial part of the Suns’ regular-season offense, an elite floor spacer who too thrived in off-ball actions. He was literally in the 96th percentile in points per shot attempt last season.
Then the playoffs started. Suddenly, Allen became a problem. Minnesota’s suffocating playoff defense meant those same looks from three weren’t there anymore. Now there wasn't much left for him to offer, only averaged 2.2 rim attempts per 36 minutes, and his assist-to-usage ratio was just 0.77.
He wasn’t attacking closeouts, getting to the rim, or playmaking out of those spots. With his offensive role diminished, he needed to provide value elsewhere. Unfortunately as just an average defender who isn’t a great cutter, screener, or rebounder, Phoenix started looking elsewhere for production.
We could also use Beasley himself as an example from just last season.
In his 2023-24 season with Milwaukee, Beasley was fantastic in the regular season, starting nearly every game and hitting over 40% from deep. Then the playoffs started. Closeouts were tighter, defenders were locked in on his off-ball movement, miscommunications were rarer. Suddenly, Beasley had to attack closeouts and beat defenders off the dribble.
He averaged just 2.6 drives per game last season (16th percentile) and only 1.1 rim attempts per game (3rd percentile). With his shooting impact reduced, the value he was bleeding on the other end defensively became impossible to ignore, and the Bucks decided his minutes weren’t nearly as valuable anymore.
This season? Beasley is averaging just 3.6 drives per game and 1.3 rim attempts per night. His assist-to-usage ratio is 0.45. Do we really expect him to have the same impact in the playoffs as in the regular season?
This leads me to my point that this archetype is incredibly valuable in the regular season -- players who can space the floor for stars, punish lazy closeouts, and take advantage of defensive lapses. And as long as they’re just good enough defensively to not get relentlessly hunted, they stick.
But in the postseason -- when their primary offensive value is diminished -- their defensive weaknesses get put under a microscope.
Teams might prefer to go with an average shooter who defenses are willing to cheat off, hoping that player can still hit a few open threes while also defending, cutting, crashing the glass, or acting as a connective playmaker.
The balance of offensive vs. defensive liability is always one of the most fascinating questions in a playoff series. Offensive liabilities look terrible when they’re left open and can’t hit shots, but at least their value tends to translate better on the defensive end.
If you’re a defensive liability and not pumping in absurd offensive value like a Trae Young or Darius Garland, teams can chip away at your offensive role and eventually play you off the floor.
Now, I’m not saying this archetype can’t work. The Heat made Finals runs with half their offense revolving around Duncan Robinson running off screens and warping defenses. But he was also a little better creator off the bounce, and Spoelstra is a wizard at maximizing movement shooters in unconventional ways.
This is simply something all NBA fans should keep an eye on this postseason.
Guys like Buddy Hield, Tim Hardaway Jr., AJ Green, Isaiah Joe -- guards who aren’t great defenders and thrive on shooting without much else -- are all super valuable in the regular season. In the playoffs though? It gets a lot more complicated.
. . .
When a Quiet Trade Makes a Loud Impact
This season’s trade deadline was filled with massive moves that changed the fortunes of multiple teams. The biggest, obviously, was Luka Doncic heading to the Lakers, instantly making them one of the most difficult offenses to gameplan for in the postseason.
Jimmy Butler gave the Warriors that second offensive option they desperately needed, allowing all their talented role players to settle into more natural roles.
Even De’Andre Hunter’s move to Cleveland filled a crucial gap for the Cavs, giving them a big offensive wing who can also match up physically with the other big wings in the East, like those in Boston.
But one move that flew completely under the radar -- both because it happened in December instead of at the deadline, and because it didn’t involve a big name -- is making as big of an impact as any trade this season.
On December 29th, the Los Angeles Lakers traded D’Angelo Russell in exchange for 3&D wing Dorian Finney-Smith, a player many NBA fans had likely forgotten about while his skill set was being wasted on a bad Brooklyn team.
Since acquiring Finney-Smith, the Lakers have skyrocketed defensively. Before the trade, they ranked 21st in defensive rating. Since? Fifth. Even after losing Anthony Davis to injury and later trading for Doncic -- clearly a downgrade defensively -- the Lakers’ defense has even improved again, ranking third since January 28th.
The numbers are pointing directly at DFS: the Lakers are an absurd 9.1 points better per 100 possessions defensively with him on the floor. His versatility is exactly what this team needed -- he has the size to guard bigger players, the quickness to defend the point of attack, and the activity to be super switchy.
The Lakers can deploy him in any defensive scheme, and he will make it work.
Beyond Finney-Smith’s elite defense, this is also a classic case of addition by subtraction. Simply taking Russell out of the rotation was already going to improve the defense. Now replace him with an excellent defender in DFS? We are cooking with grease.
When I was scouting the Lakers-Nuggets game this whole topic first popped in my head. I wrote about how they defended Jokic -- switching everything, fronting the post, and keeping help defenders behind to prevent over the top passes. Finney-Smith is one of the main reasons this strategy works.
In this specific possession, he starts by defending Jamal Murray at the point of attack. When the switch comes, he seamlessly takes on Jokic, using his quickness and elite hands to force a steal and create a transition opportunity for the Lakers. Now, imagine if Russell were in that spot instead. That possession likely plays out a lot differently.
Mid-season trades -- big or small -- don’t always work out. Sometimes a blockbuster deal in February leaves a team with too little time to gel before the playoffs. Other times, a smaller trade doesn’t pan out because the player doesn’t fit the envisioned role.
So I just love when a team hits on a quiet move that makes a loud impact, like Dallas last season. The P.J. Washington + Daniel Gafford trade didn’t break the internet, but both players fit way better into what the Mavericks were trying to do than Grant Williams, who was shipped out in the process. The combination of addition by subtraction (moving Williams) and the value added by Washington and Gafford helped Dallas get within three wins of the NBA Finals.
The Lakers might be following a similar blueprint with Finney-Smith. If they make a deep run in the postseason, this under-the-radar December move will be a huge reason why.
. . .
Should the Magic Sacrifice Defense for Offense?
I was just enjoying my Sunday afternoon without football, watching some Cavaliers vs. Magic basketball on ABC. The Magic, leaning on their defense, clawed back late and managed to steal an impressive win in Cleveland. As good as the win was, the execution down the stretch? Not so much.
Orlando was practically begging for someone to create an offensive advantage late in the game. The offense couldn’t have been more stagnant, often ending possessions with tough shots from Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner. It wasn’t shocking when you checked the box score the duo shot 14-for-41 from the field.
Against a Cleveland team missing its best defensive player in Evan Mobley, the Cavs’ defense wasn’t exactly a cakewalk, but it wasn’t some elite unit either. If your two best players can’t generate good shots for themselves or their teammates in a game like this, maybe they aren’t supposed to be your two best offensive players.
However, on the other end like I said Orlando’s defense was unbelievable. Even when Cleveland got a couple of clean looks late, there’s a difference between an open shot and a comfortable one. When you’ve been hounded and smothered for 48 minutes, those open looks don’t feel as open as they are.
So let’s talk about this. The Magic are currently the second-best defense in basketball, while on the other end 28th in offense, which if you’re counting, is third-to-last in the league. They rank second-to-last in effective field goal percentage, only ahead of the stellar Charlotte Hornets. That tells you two things: they don’t create good shots, and they don’t have elite shot makers.
This game encapsulated everything about Orlando’s metrics.
What’s really fascinating is that, despite multiple opportunities to add offense around this core -- whether through trades or the draft -- the Magic have consistently gone after defensive-minded players instead.
Their bet is clear: First that Jalen Suggs, who is out for the season (and whose absence is very noticeable), will continue his slow but steady playmaking improvements while still being the head of the snake defensively.
And more importantly that Wagner and Banchero will grow into this duo offensive engine -- something similar to what Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown do in Boston. The vision is to have two-way wings driving the offense, while surrounding them with defensive-minded role players who enhance the offense in niche ways.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is that kind of player, somebody who fit that mold for teams like the Lakers and Nuggets helping them win championships. So why the struggles this season in Orlando?
Those teams had offensive stars who allowed KCP to thrive as a play finisher. In Orlando, the infrastructure just isn’t there. Without a true offensive engine, guys like KCP are no longer force multipliers.
So here's where the decision comes in. The Magic already have a team capable of making life miserable for top-tier opponents in a playoff series. But they need someone to create real offensive advantages, someone who makes life easier for guys like Paolo, who looks more like a second or third option right now. Franz showed flashes earlier this season that got me excited, but since his injury, he too looks like a secondary or even tertiary offensive player.
Do they go after a Trae Young-type, even if it means sacrificing some of their defensive identity? Or do they stay the course, believing that between Paolo, Franz, and Suggs, they can develop enough to build a good enough offense while keeping the defense top tier elite? It feels like a long-term play, and given how young this team is, you can’t really blame them.
Yet I’d love to see this team get into some real, competitive playoff series soon. What I saw on Sunday against Cleveland? The defense is already ready. The offense just needs someone to take the wheel.
. . .
March Madness Prospects to Watch
I figured since I will likely not cover any of the tournament, it made some sense to put out a short topic about some of the NBA prospects to watch in this upcoming March Madness.
F. Cooper Flagg, Duke: Yeah thanks Dan, no kidding! The only reason I included Flagg on here is because I think he might be one of the highest-floor prospects I’ve ever seen, and I want you to see it. At his worst, this guy is going to be a big, active defender, capable of guarding multiple positions. He’ll be able to clean up messes as a weakside helper, creating turnovers and protecting the rim. Offensively, at worst he should be a solid second side creator, active on the offensive glass, set good screens, make smart cuts, just all the little things. If he hits his ceiling as an offensive player with that defensive floor? Oh boy, Jayson Tatum vibes.
G. Egor Demin, BYU: You like big guards who can manipulate defenses with their passing? Allow me to introduce you to BYU’s 6'9 guard, who I see as the best playmaker in this class. His stock has dipped a bit after an injury led to an efficiency drop, but he’s the type of player an NBA team will quickly talk themselves into by April. If BYU makes a run, his fingerprints will be all over it.
F/C. Danny Wolf, Michigan: This one’s for the nerds. Wolf is cut from the “ offensive jack-of-all-trades white big man” cloth, where some evaluators will fall in love with him, while others will constantly question whether he’s good enough to anchor a defense at the next level or if he’ll have to play the four. Regardless of the debate, get ready to see some double-seven-footer pick-and-rolls with Wolf handling, some fancy footwork to beat defenders down low, and a nice shooting touch—he’s knocking down nearly 34% of his threes.
G. Tre Johnson, Texas: How about a guy the nerds won’t love, but he’s super fun? Tre Johnson is the definition of a microwave scorer -- best off the bounce with tough shot-making but also has the burst and strength to get all the way to the rim. He’s averaging 19.8 points a night for the Longhorns, and Texas' best bet for making a deep run in this tournament is hoping Johnson gets really hot for a couple of weeks. At the next level, the big questions will be: What else can Johnson do besides score? And will he stay engaged when he’s not getting the ball?
. . .
Operation: Save Devin Booker
The Suns need to blow it up. Watching Devin Booker in this situation has become unbearable. Same goes for Kevin Durant, but at 36 with two rings, his legacy is set. Booker, though, at the peak of his powers, is stuck on a team that not only wastes his talent but actively exposes his weaknesses.
I touched on this in my Suns piece a few weeks ago, but after the displeasure of watching them again, it’s clear: Booker is miscast. He’s playing point guard when he’s naturally a combo-guard, and is surrounded by offensive-first players, forcing him into tougher defensive assignments. This season, his “matchup difficulty” is the highest of his career, per Basketball Index.
When the Suns made the Finals and won 65 games, they built around Booker properly. Chris Paul ran the offense, 3-and-D wings lightened his defensive load, and he thrived in isolation and secondary playmaking. Just because he's effective in pick-and-roll and has playmaking chops, doesn't necessarily mean he's a lead guard.
Defensively, he’s never been a lockdown guy, but he can hold his own in the right system. We saw it earlier this decade, when Phoenix was routinely in the top eight defensively. We saw it in the Olympics, where he embraced a "little things" role.
Yes, his metrics this season are ugly -- his D-LEBRON sits at -2.50 -- but history prior suggests he can at least be passable. When you're capable of averaging 27 points and nearly seven assists on 60% true shooting, passable should be enough.
Houston could be a perfect fit. They own all Phoenix’s picks, and if they swapped Booker for Jalen Green and some secondary stuff, he’d slide into a backcourt with Fred VanVleet handling the primary playmaking. He’d thrive playing off Alperen Sengun in empty side actions as a hub of the offense.
Booker would also get the easiest perimeter matchup every night, surrounded by defensive stoppers like Dillon Brooks, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. Combine that with Udoka's defensive system that we covered earlier this season, that’s a legitimate Finals contender.
If the Suns won’t trade him, they need to reconstruct the roster like they did in the early 2020s -- playing to his strengths and covering his weaknesses. A player who consistently drives elite offense (+8 or better in offensive on/off splits for basically his entire career) should have a greater impact on winning. Right now, Phoenix is failing him.
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