Checkout Time: The NBA Takes the Keys
- 4 days ago
- 22 min read
Updated: 2 hours ago
Daniel Waddleton
Feb 9, 2026
I'm really tired of boring Super Bowls. I’m very much looking forward to next year’s big game -- one that'll include Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens -- so we can get back to some fireworks on Super Bowl Sunday.
For now, football takes a seat. It’s time to focus on what really matters on the sports calendar: the NBA postseason. It might feel far away, but in just 64 days we’ll be watching the Hawks, Heat, and Bulls battle it out in their invitational tournament that NBA decided to call the Play-In. To put that in perspective, 64 days ago was December 7th, and if you did anything cool that day, you know how not-that-long-ago it was.
So today’s piece is a packed one as we get you football nerds up to speed. We’ll start with a Starting Five of the biggest things you need to know from the first half of the NBA season, then highlight what actually mattered at the trade deadline. From there, I’ll tier up each conference based on championship viability, before running through my current awards ballot two-thirds of the way in, and close with another Starting Five of things to watch between now and the postseason tipping off April 14.
This piece is a doozy -- easily my longest ever -- so I made a cheat sheet below to help you navigate and jump to whatever you actually want to read:
Starting Five: In Case You’ve Been Watching Football
The Pistons have the second best record in basketball
After jumping from 14 wins in 2023-24 to 44 last season -- a 30-win leap that ranks sixth all time -- it was fair to wonder if Detroit was due for regression. Silly thought experiment. The Pistons are 38-13, first in the East with a 4.5-game cushion, and own the second-best record in the NBA trailing only the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
The story has been MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, whose steady year-over-year improvement has pushed Detroit into real contender territory. Cunningham is averaging 25.1 points and a league-leading 9.7 assists, and when he’s on the floor the Pistons post a 119.3 offensive rating which would rank third-best leaguewide. The final step is efficiency, which is still slightly below league average (-1.2 rTS%), but at this point it feels far more like a “when” than an “if.”
Yet, the real backbone of this first-place squad is defense. Detroit ranks second overall, built on a nasty-but-disciplined identity that mirrors a modern “Bad Boys” ethos. They’re elite at dictating shot profiles, rank second in both half-court and transition defense, and stay on a string in rotation. The Ausar Thompson-Isaiah Stewart-Ron Holland II trio might be the most intimidating collection of players a team can put on the floor together, and the best part is they know it. And unlike many high-usage stars, Cunningham has been additive defensively, which is why Detroit’s defense holds even when he plays heavy minutes.
There’s reasonable concern about their championship equity -- spacing with Jalen Duren and another non-shooter like Thompson or Holland II on the floor, reliable scoring beyond Cunningham. But I’ll leave you with this: against top-10 net-rating teams, Detroit is +6.5 per 100, best in the league, and nearly three points better than second-place OKC. That doesn’t scream regular-season mirage.
Suns and Raptors Are the Conference Surprise Teams
The irony here is I was dead right on Phoenix, and dead wrong on Toronto.
Let’s start in the desert. The Suns entered the year with a 31.5-win projection after missing the playoffs and moving Kevin Durant for what felt like cents on the dollar. Look up now, and they’re 31-22, seventh in the West, pacing 48 wins. You can't sing this teams praises long before getting to first-year coach Jordan Ott, and the credit he deserves for flipping the team’s DNA. Phoenix wins the possession and math battles nightly -- top-eight in offensive rebounding rate, opponent turnover rate, and three-point attempts and makes. Their identity is winning on the margins.
Devin Booker has found a ton of credit and he should, carrying one of the heaviest offensive loads in the league (50.2 possessions per 100) and posting 25.3 points on 58.1% TS with 6.3 assists a night. But he’s not alone. Dillon Brooks has come in and brought edge and toughness, now scoring 21.1 points per game on near-league-average efficiency.
The depth has mattered too. Collin Gillespie has given them their first stabilizing point guard presence since Chris Paul left. Osa Ighodaro has been underrated as a connective passer and an important cog in their eighth-ranked defense as a switchable five with great instincts. Jordan Goodwin continues to impact winning on the defensive end and in those margin areas we talked about, like offensive rebounding. This isn’t just Booker hero ball -- it’s a roster optimized by role clarity and margin hunting.
Now Toronto, where I whiffed. I took the under because of redundancy concerns -- too many overlapping skill sets, not enough connective pieces. Instead, Darko Rajakovic has done an excellent job staggering stars and pairing them with the right mix of role players. They’re 31-22, fifth in the East, also pacing 48 wins against a 39.5 Vegas line.
The starting five -- Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl -- has been better than I expected (+5.0 net rating), but the real value has come from the combinations around it.
When Quickley and Jamal Shead share the backcourt, Toronto is +9.8 in 330 minutes, easing the primary creation burden on Quickley and allowing him to thrive off the catch. Lineups with Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles anchoring the defensive frontcourt allow just 104.4 points per 100 possessions over nearly 500 minutes -- OKC-level defense. And with Sandro Mamukelashvili spacing at the five, downhill lanes open for Barrett, with those units posting a 119.9 offensive rating in 275 minutes.
Like Phoenix, the stars will always absorb the headlines on an overachieving team. Ingram has been an elite tough-shot maker, and Barnes remains the two-way Swiss Army knife that makes everything function.
But this team works because of its middle class -- Shead, Murray-Boyles, Mamukelashvili, Ja’Kobe Walter, Grady Dick -- NBA players with legitimate skillsets who fit cleanly around the stars. Toronto probably has more conference-finals equity than they’re being given credit for, even if I wouldn’t pick them.
The Nuggets Can Finally Survive Without Nikola Jokic
Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic’s year-by-year case for the award has long leaned on absurd on/off signals. This year, that signal has "dipped" from a record-breaking +22.6 per 100 over the last three seasons to +16.9, which is still crazy but beside the point. The reason isn’t Jokic -- who could be having the best season of his career -- it’s that Denver finally functions without him.
The Nuggets are 10-6 without Jokic, a massive swing from 13-23 over the previous four seasons combined, and that’s even with starters Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun also missing a combined 73 games. This is the most competent supporting cast Denver has had around Jokic since his MVP rise.
The difference is depth and internal growth. Offseason additions Bruce Brown Jr., Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valančiūnas have stabilized bench units. Peyton Watson has layered a catch-and-shoot three and real on-ball shotmaking onto his already elite defense. And most importantly, Jamal Murray is playing the best basketball of his career, posting career highs in points (26.0), assists (7.5), and efficiency (61.9% TS).
With Murray on and Jokic off, Denver’s offense can still hum. With both on the floor, it explodes -- a 131.1 offensive rating, a number that would shatter league history. This team is finally built to survive the non-Jokic minutes and absolutely bury teams in them.
The Magic’s Offense Still Stinks
After acquiring Desmond Bane over the summer, the Magic optimism got into “Finals darkhorse” territory. Instead, Orlando ranks 21st in offensive rating (113.4) -- yet another year outside the league’s top half, something they haven’t achieved at season’s end since 2012. The issues are familiar: 29th in PnR/DHO efficiency, dead last in three-point percentage (34%) on bottom-five volume, and below average at the rim. Some nights they’re purely losing basic math battles.
A major flaw is overreliance on Paolo Banchero. He carries an 85th-percentile usage load, but the efficiency hasn’t followed (-1.5 rTS%), largely due to poor pull-up shooting (30.9 eFG%) yet high reliance on that shot, plus a pedestrian 1.73 AST/TO ratio. With no real offensive drop-off when he sits, it’s clear the Paolo-centric approach needs scaling back -- not removing him, but diversifying responsibility.
To be clear, it’s not all on him. Franz Wagner has missed a lot of time, Bane started slowly, and the big-man rotation doesn’t provide much offensive juice in my opinion. Still, at 27-24 with a negative net rating, this has been one of the league’s bigger disappointments. And it hasn’t helped that a defense that ranked top-three the last two seasons has slipped to 13th.
A Rookie Class You’ll Want to Remember
The crown jewel of the 2025 draft class, Cooper Flagg has already given Dallas fans real hope in the post-Luka era. At just 19, he’s averaging 20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. The two-way production has also been impressive not because I doubted it, but because he’s being asked to shoulder far more offensive responsibility than a rookie wing ever should due to Dallas’s ball-handling limitations. The counting stats aren’t the point, though. What’s stood out is his growth from Game 1 to now -- improved processing with the ball, multi-position defensive versatility, and a scalable skill set that will clearly translate to winning basketball. Now Dallas has to fully optimized the ecosystem around him.
And as a testament to the strength of this class, my Rookie of the Year pick remains his former college teammate Kon Knueppel, who has played like a seven-year vet. The shooting is elite (42.8% on 7.9 attempts per game), but the real separator for me is efficiency and feel. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Knueppel’s 64.6% true shooting is the highest ever by a rookie with at least a 20% usage rate over 1,200 minutes. His off-ball movement, savvy passing, team defense, and ability to produce on-ball offense without hijacking possessions scream rare feel for a 20-year-old one-and-done. Charlotte has a real franchise cornerstone.
The rest of the class is loaded with upside. Cedric Coward and VJ Edgecombe have looked like functional two-way wings from opening night, with Edgecombe especially popping as a defensive playmaker (1.7 turnovers forced per game) while already knocking down nearly 40% of his wide-open threes. Toronto has plenty to be excited about with Murray-Boyles, who has anchored switch-heavy lineups at the five despite being undersized; those units defend at a 111.8 defensive rating, which would rank fourth league-wide. And while Dylan Harper has had peaks and valleys playing behind San Antonio’s established backcourt, the flashes are undeniable -- 19-year-old 6’6 guards generating 7.5 rim attempts per game (97th percentile) and playmaking against collapsed defense like that don’t grow on trees.
My biggest red flag among highly touted prospects right now is Derrick Queen. The high-end flashes as a middle-of-the-floor offensive hub have people understandably excited, but the defense is a real concern. He has a long way to go if he’s going to anchor a competitive defense at center, and he may be a bit farther away from being a true impact player than the hype suggests.
There’s depth beyond the headline names too. Tre Johnson looks like a long-term movement-shooting weapon, averaging 12.9 points and shooting 39.8% (47.4% wide open) from deep. Ace Bailey remains a longer-term bet, but the shotmaking and defensive upside give him a sky-high ceiling if it clicks. I’m still super high on Walter Clayton Jr. and think he’ll benefit from a clearer runway in Memphis after being buried in Utah’s guard logjam, while Hugo Gonzalez has been the rookie surprise of the year, owning one of the best on/off signals in the league on a contender thanks to relentless defense and connective play.
NBA Trade Deadline News:
The biggest result of deadline week might’ve been what didn’t happen: Giannis Antetokounmpo is staying put in Milwaukee, at least through this season.
At this point he’s basically becoming the worst guy you’ve ever met -- the passive-aggressive dude who clearly doesn’t like whatever situation he's in but won’t say it outright. He leans on the idea of leaving without ever committing, so he doesn’t have to be the bad guy -- and if nothing happens, he can return like nothing ever did. It’s exhausting. Don’t be this guy.
The funniest part is I don’t think a single Bucks fan would blame him if he asked out. He won them a championship. The team now stinks. It probably is time for both sides to move on -- and I’d imagine that finally happens this summer, when the pool of suitors should be deeper and Milwaukee’s urgency spikes with only one year remaining.
The other big headline was the Clippers. Winners of 16 of their last 20 after an abysmal 7-21 start, they then made a surprise pivot right as they re-entered the playoff bracket. Los Angeles worked with James Harden on a deal that sent him to Cleveland in exchange for Darius Garland, signaling the end of this era of Clippers basketball.
I’m honestly more fascinated by Cleveland’s side here. Garland has had elite offensive peaks in his tenure, but durability and defensive limitations have capped him. Harden is the higher-floor option -- even at 36, he remains one of the best regular-season offensive drivers in basketball. The playoffs have been a roller coaster for him, but paired with Donovan Mitchell, he won’t have to carry quite the same burden. He’s also bigger and stronger than Garland, which should at least help him avoid being relentlessly hunted.
The stylistic contrast is real -- Cleveland under Kenny Atkinson has thrived in a pace-and-space, movement-heavy offense, while Harden prefers a slower, surgical high pick-and-roll and isolation approach. But there’s upside here if they can find a way to make the two styles co-exist. His synergy with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in ball screen actions could be lethal. I’ve always joked trading for Harden is like trading for 1.5 players if you have a big with untapped offensive potential.
The Clippers also moved last season’s All-Defensive team center Ivica Zubac, which made some sense after the Harden pivot. Indiana, despite a rough year without offensive centerpiece Tyrese Haliburton, took a swing to solve its center issue long-term. Zubac gives them a two-way physical interior presence they’ve never really had, even during the Myles Turner era. He won't pick and pop, but I like him better then Turner as a screener/DHO hub in the middle of the floor, and very comfortable playing out of the short roll.
Despite the upside, the price wasn’t cheap. Along with a 2029 unprotected first, the Pacers will either send this year’s pick if it lands 5-9 in a loaded draft, or owe an unprotected 2031 first if they keep this years pick due to the top-four protection. Even if they’re lucky enough to retain the pick this year, a lot can change in six years.
That leads to the final major headline: non-playoff teams making big talent swings. Utah acquired Jaren Jackson Jr. from Memphis for a package headlined by three first-rounders plus Walter Clayton Jr. and rotation pieces. Washington acquired Anthony Davis in exchange for two first-rounders, three seconds, Khris Middleton's salary, and AJ Johnson among others.
They’re big moves -- just not ones that will impact this season. For Utah, its a timeline speed-up and a real bet on Keyonte George’s growth as a legitimate offensive engine. Meanwhile Washington decided it was time to put serious talent around its young core, acquiring Trae Young and Anthony Davis over the past two weeks -- two All-Star-level players -- at relative discounts due to circumstances with their previous teams. Neither of these big men are perfect -- one stylistically, one durability-wise -- but they’re swings I didn’t mind on either front.
Rapid-Fire Deadline Notes
The Golden State Warriors finally end the Jonathan Kuminga saga, taking a talent swing on Kristaps Porzingis. If he’s healthy, he’s a top-50 player. The issue is I'm not sure he's ever going to be again.
The Detroit Pistons add movement shooting with Kevin Huerter, an archetype we know work next to Cade Cunningham.
The Boston Celtics pivot off sharpshooting ball handler Anfernee Simons and acquire Nikola Vucevic, slightly diversifying their offensive attack with more an inside-out game while also creating favorable cap flexibility.
The Minnesota Timberwolves move off what was a disaster Dillingham situation and add a playoff ready guard in Ayo Dosunmu.
The red-hot Charlotte Hornets make a talent play during a nine-game win streak, landing Coby White (18.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) on what felt like a discount.
The New York Knicks add defensive edge and playmaking with Jose Alvarado. The Garden will adore him.
The Los Angeles Lakers somehow got worse defensively, swapping guards Gabe Vincent for Luke Kennard. At least Kennard will make the shots he's rewarded playing with these stars -- 49.7% on wide-open threes over the past three seasons.
The Oklahoma City Thunder add shooting and secondary handling with Jared McCain for a 2026 Rockets first. Low risk, high reward swing I'm a big fan of.
The Portland Trail Blazers continue quietly savvy team-building with the addition of Vít Krejčí. He will bring some of what they lack, quick decision making, connective passing, and a reliable three-point shot.
And because the Sacramento Kings are going to King: they move one of the only real assets on their team in guard Keon Ellis for hypothetical 3 and D DeAndre Hunter, who hasn't given much "D" in years. Cleveland also sneaks in another bench ball handler/playmaker with Dennis Schroder, who I'll always be a fan of in controlled minutes.
Championship Viability Tiers:
(Tier 1 -- Legitimate Championship Contenders, Tier 2 -- Secondary Championship Contenders, Tier 3 -- Can Win Any Given Series, Tier 4 -- Competitive in Any Given Series, Tier 5 -- Drawing Dead on Arrival, Tier 6 -- Playoff Hopes Already Over)
Eastern Conference
Tier 1 - Nobody
I don’t think anyone in the East can beat a healthy Oklahoma City or Denver four times, so we are empty here.
Tier 2 - DET, NYK, BOS
I believe the conference champion is in this tier. Detroit has been the best regular-season team with a defense that travels and a matchup-resilient superstar offensive player. New York is arguably the most talented roster top-to-bottom (four FBF top-40 guys) but carries real defensive concerns. Boston is the upside swing -- with a whole Jayson Tatum, they will be the East favorites, but that hinges on a guy nine months removed from an Achilles tear.
Tier 3 - PHI, TOR, CLE
Not a dark-horse tier because I don’t see any of these teams winning three straight series, but Tier 2 would hate drawing them in Round 1. Philadelphia in a two-week sprint is terrifying -- Maxey has been top-15 level, Embiid is at 28-8-4 on 61% TS since December 1, and they have “I can swing a game” role guys. Toronto is deep, plays hard, and has legitimate playoff-level offensive talent. I think Cleveland is the closest to a 16-game team in this group as I’m bullish on Harden’s offensive synergy with Mitchell and their bigs, but the lack of two-way wings still feels like the thing they won't be able to overcome.
Tier 4 - ORL, MIL, CHA
Two of the most disappointing teams in the league here. Orlando still can’t score and Milwaukee is talent-deficient outside of Giannis. Charlotte on the other hand, now that's a team! Winners of nine straight -- posting a top-three offense and defense over that stretch -- I don’t think they’re contenders, but they’re competitive enough to live in a tier they probably haven't lived in since 2015.
Tier 5 - ATL, CHI, MIA
Set Chicago aside because their only organizational goal is to be .500 forever. Atlanta and Miami have been stuck in this same frustrating loop for years -- talented enough to think they’re close, but ending up back in the Play-In every time. They’re firmly in that NBA purgatory right now, and I could see both dangling young assets and going star hunting this offseason.
Tier 6 - IND, BKN, WAS
Funny enough, two of the biggest buyers at the deadline come from the “hopes already over” group. Indiana as expected found its center for 2026-27 early. Washington has turned some heads acquiring star talent on a discount. Indiana expects to be right back in the conference title mix next season, and the Wizards have officially entered Phase 2 of the rebuild.
Western Conference
Tier 1 - OKC, DEN
The two best teams in basketball. Neither is perfect, but if healthy, the champion comes from here. This all just feels like a collision course toward a de facto Finals in the Western playoffs.
Tier 2 - MIN, SAS
If we don’t get OKC vs. Denver, one of these teams probably did something. Minnesota can’t be a sure-fire contender because of inconsistency, but it’s not an accident they’ve reached the last two conference finals and consistently give the elite teams problems. At their best, I’m not sure anyone in the league can reach their level of physicality on both ends. San Antonio has a championship-level defensive ceiling with Wemby anchoring and high-level perimeter defenders around him. The problem is shooting and offensive reliability beyond D’Aaron Fox and Wemby. In a seven-game series, that margin shrinks fast.
Tier 3 - LAL, HOU
This is the tier casual fans will overpick. The Lakers’ defensive infrastructure will negate any individual ceiling Luka and LeBron can reach, and it’s concerning the Dončić-Reaves-James trio is -7.8 in 322 minutes with a rather ugly 110.9 offensive rating. Houston is the sadder story, because they probably had OKC/DEN-level upside when healthy. Losing both VanVleet and Steven Adams strips them of their stabilizer and their offensive-rebounding cheat code. This offense has never felt more like a work in progress despite starting the season on a heater.
Tier 4 - PHX, GSW, LAC
If I made this a week ago, Golden State and the Clippers would be a tier higher. Now this is the “this is going to suck for seven games” tier. Curry's ability to warp the court will never be an easy thing for teams to defend, while Phoenix and LA can drag teams in the mud defensively and have the shot creators to put together enough offense to win games.
Tier 5 - POR
I’d buy a lot of Portland stock long-term, but right now the offense has no chance to hold up in a playoff series, even if Deni Avdija (+9.3 offensive on/off) played 48 minutes a night.
Tier 6 - DAL, NOP, SAC, UTA, MEM
All five are 5+ games back of Portland for the final play-in spot, and I don’t see any tracking them down. It’s a weird group because realistically most should be in, or heading toward, rebuild mode -- yet only Memphis seems fully committed. Sacramento and New Orleans might get mislabeled as rebuilds due to embarrassing play, but both are reluctant to trade their best players. Utah bought at the deadline and looks ready for Phase 2 of the rebuild. While Dallas looks like they’re opting for a retool rather than a teardown as they shift from a team perfectly built around Luka to building around Flagg.
FBF Current Award Ballot:
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham
I had Jokic at the one-third mark. Now, with a third of the season left, I lean Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I think the 12-game gap matters in a race this tight. Dunks & Threes’ Estimated Wins model (EPM + minutes) has SGA at +13.7 and Jokic at +10.7, and I’m considering that separation in a razor-thin battle. Shai also doesn’t need an availability margin for me to feel good voting for him: 33.9 points per 75 on +9.3 rTS% is one of the best individual scoring seasons ever. For context, 2016 Steph Curry was 31.3 per 75 on +12.8 rTS% -- the gold standard. This race isn’t over, and if Jokic closes flawlessly, I could flip back.
ROTY: Kon Knueppel, Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe
What I loved about Knueppel pre-draft is exactly why he’s leading this race for me: he doesn’t need to dominate the ball to impact games. He plays like a vet -- sharp passing reads, constant off-ball movement, strong team defense, and an overall rare feel for a 20-year-old. Add the aforementioned high-octane shooting, and he’s been the most consistently impactful rookie by film and by the numbers as the highest EPM rookie (+2.1). Don’t get lost in raw total, even if Kon's are also pretty damn good.
DPOY: Victor Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, Chet Holmgren
It’s not the runaway it was before the calf injury, but I still lean Wemby. The Spurs are the best defense in basketball when he’s on the floor (105.8 DRTG), with opponents taking just 26% of their shots at the rim in those minutes. That deterrence makes it incredibly hard to generate consistent offense. I do think Gobert has played himself into real consideration though. Minnesota’s 108.8 defensive rating with him on and the -13.1 on/off swing are elite. He may not have Wemby’s ceiling, but he remains one of the greatest regular-season defensive floor raisers ever even as his career hits a different stage.
6MOTY: Jaime Jaquez Jr, Ajay Mitchell, Naz Reid
Holding strong on my one-third mark pick, even if the case isn’t quite as airtight now. Jaquez’s bruising, herky-jerky style lives in the paint (17.7 drives per-36), where he’s efficient at the rim (69.9%) and a capable playmaker (4.7 assists). His +4.9 on/off -- second on the team behind Bam Adebayo -- highlights how important he’s been to keeping Miami’s no-pick-and-roll offense functional off the bench.
MIP: Keyonte George, Jalen Duren, Deni Avdija
This is the most fascinating race because I’m always wrestling with how to balance statistical growth with expanded role. Bigger minutes and usage almost always mean bigger numbers -- but that doesn’t automatically mean real improvement.
Avdija and Jalen Johnson represent the loud cases. More responsibility, more volume, more counting stats. But when efficiency stays flat or dips with the usage spike, I try to separate growth from pure opportunity. While some regression is baked into becoming a primary creator, not all production jumps are created equal.
There’s also the Ryan Rollins case, the “out of nowhere” breakout that maybe wasn’t out of nowhere at all. If you watched closely last season, you probably saw it coming. Did he actually improve, or did the minutes finally match the talent?
Then there are the quieter cases like Jalen Duren or Peyton Watson. The box score leap isn’t massive, but the skill growth is clear. More polished offensively, better processing. Efficiency rising along with responsibility. The film says “better,” even if the totals aren't as loud.
That's how I eventually landed on Keyonte George. His role has grown. His production has grown. But more importantly, his control has grown. The decision-making is sharper. The shot profile is cleaner. The game looks slower for him. His raw totals are up, his efficiency is up, and his on/off impact has skyrocketed -- Utah’s offense has gone from +2.5 better per 100 with him on the floor last season to +8.5 better this season.
COTY: Jordan Ott, David Adleman, Darko Rajakovic
There are compelling cases across the league, but I still feel very good about my one-third mark pick, Jordan Ott. The Suns are 31-22 and seventh in the West after entering the year with a 31.5-win projection. The roster was probably always underrated, but pacing 48 wins shouldn’t have been in the cards. Ott has flipped Phoenix’s DNA by emphasizing the possession and math battles: top-eight in offensive rebounding rate, opponent turnover rate, and three-point attempts/makes. This team wins on the margins nightly, which is why they’ve been able to be greater than the sum of their parts. Ott deserves major credit for identifying exactly where this group could gain an edge, drilling it daily, and optimizing Booker in the process.
Starting Five: The Stretch-Run Storylines
1. 76ers and Clippers Lurk in Conferences
When I first mapped this out, I didn’t know the Clippers were about to trade their offensive engine (Harden) and defensive anchor (Zubac). I considered changing it, but I won’t.
I think Los Angeles still lurks. What if Garland looks fully healthy and his quickness, handle, and shooting all click again? What if Leonard stays healthy and at this legitimate top-five level? What if a Ty Lue / Jeff Van Gundy defensive minded staff squeezes every ounce out of this defense-slanted roster? Since the deadline, they’ve gone on the road to Sacramento and Minnesota, winning by an average of 11.2 and holding opponents to a combined 106.2 ORtg. Same small sample, but I’m watching closely.
Philadelphia lurks in the East. Maxey is playing at an All-NBA level (28.8 PPG, 6.8 APG, 59.8% TS). Embiid’s 2020-24 historical scoring heights aren’t coming back, but the jumper and free-throw rate have returned. We talked about this earlier in the piece: this team isn’t built for two months, but for two weeks? Nobody in the East wants that sprint. Paul George can swing a game, Edgecombe’s two-way pop is made for the postseason, they have fresh legs like Adem Bona and Dominic Barlow playing real minutes, and vets like Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes stabilizing lineups. Don’t skip Philly on League Pass down the stretch, become familiar with the final era of the "Process Sixers."
2. Jayson Tatum’s Return Looms Large
Boston is 34--19 with the third-best net rating (+7.9) in basketball despite the obvious elephant in the room: no Jayson Tatum.
Jaylen Brown has ascended to new heights offensively. Derrick White has been All-Star caliber even with a down shooting year. They’ve gotten creative -- using Neemias Queta as a connective hub in the middle of the floor, unleashing non-lottery rookie Hugo Gonzalez on defense, and letting Payton Pritchard and Simons do what they do best: get ‘em up. But there’s still a Tatum-sized hole.
They lack a wing who can guard 1-5, rebound at a high level (teams 20th in DRB%), and steady the offense by creating consistent advantages. Plug that back in, add Nikola Vucevic’s inside-out flow the team lacked prior to his accusation, and Boston’s ceiling changes dramatically. With Tatum, they’re a contender. Without him, they’re dangerous but capped. The version we see in his return will matter a lot come spring.
3. Houston's Sneak Bad Offense
We wrote a film breakdown on Houston’s unconventional yet elite offense on December 4th when they were second in ORtg (121.9). Since then? They’re 14th at 114.3 over a 33-game sample -- more than a third of a season.
The early surge was fueled by hot shooting: 40.1% from three, second in the league at the time. Since then, they’re at 35.6%, right in the middle of the pack. Regression was always coming. They’re probably somewhere between those two stretches, but now we’re seeing what this offense looks like without ripping the net off the rim.
They’ll also have to go on without Steven Adams, which matters more than people think. With Adams on the floor, they grabbed 44.3% of their own misses -- a number that would blow away an NBA record. Without him? 36%. Still strong, but not the "this can literally be real half court offense” cheat code.
Without the hot shooting and overwhelming second chances, the flaws get louder. Amen Thompson flashes as a downhill engine, but the offense gets clunky when he has the controller too much -- and right now he has it 31% of the time he’s on the floor. Kevin Durant is still incredible, but we are asking a lot on this 37-year-old with an injury history. Alperen Sengun can create for himself and others, but sits at -2.6 rTS% and only marginally lifts the offense in his on/off signal. He’s not an elite offensive engine despite the raw totals.
The VanVleet injury got swept under the rug when the offense was humming. Now his absence is glaring. Without Adams warping the glass and without the hot shooting, Houston looks less like a quirky juggernaut and more like a very talented team searching for structure -- the kind VanVleet provides as a ball handling stabilizer who can run traditional action and get guys the ball in their spots.
The defensive ceiling is still real. The offensive identity? That’s what they need to rediscover before April if they want to play with the big kids.
Tanking for a special 2026 Draft Class
This will be hands down one of the greatest tankathons in NBA history.
I'm not exaggerating. With nearly two months left, eight teams are openly positioning for lottery odds with a loaded 2026 draft positing at stake. The game begun Saturday: Jaren Jackson Jr. dropped 22 in three quarters in his Utah debut… then sat as a 15-point lead evaporated. So did Markkanen. So did Nurkic. Utah lost. That was the point.
There appear to be four elite prospects -- Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson -- plus serious depth beyond them. This draft could alter franchises, and everyone wants in.
Except New Orleans of course, who traded away this year’s unprotected first-round pick for the 13th selection last year. They won’t be tanking, even if it looks like they are.
Award Eligibility Chaos
I’ll admit I was in favor of the 65-game award eligibility rule. It sounded good in theory. In practice? It’s distorting history.
Games remaining before ineligibility:
Anthony Edwards (7)
Kawhi Leonard (4)
Victor Wembanyama (3)
Stephen Curry (2)
Nikola Jokic (1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (eliminated)
LeBron James (eliminated)
That’s MVP candidates and All-NBA locks either already gone or one ankle tweak away from disappearing.
When we look back at this season years from now and some of the best players in basketball are nowhere on All-NBA teams, it won’t be an accurate snapshot. Sure, you shouldn’t win MVP playing 40 games -- but voters weren’t doing that under the old system anyway. Jokic missing All-NBA because he played 63 games? Wemby losing DPOY at 62? We’re missing the plot.
The obvious fix is fewer games, but the league won’t sacrifice the revenue. So instead, we’re sacrificing historical accuracy. And if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s abdominal injury lingers and he dips below 65? We could hand MVP to Luka, Cade, or Jaylen Brown. Great players -- but not the guys who deserve this year’s MVP over the ineligible candidates.