The Knicks Keep Looking Up at Boston

Daniel Waddleton

Apr 8, 2025

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PRIOR TO THE start of the 2024-25 season, plenty of NBA analysts believed the New York Knicks were the team best equipped to knock off the defending champion Boston Celtics. That sentiment was reflected in the betting markets too, with the Knicks entering the season holding the second-shortest championship odds.

It wasn’t a baseless prediction. The Knicks seemed to build their entire offseason around matching up with Boston -- re-signing wing stopper OG Anunoby to a five-year extension and swinging a blockbuster trade for two-way star Mikal Bridges, cashing in a war chest of draft picks to do so.

Yet, from opening night till present day, New York hasn’t looked remotely close.

Boston has won all three matchups this season, by an average margin of 21 points. None of the games felt competitive. In each, the Celtics jumped out to a comfortable lead early and cruised the rest of the way. Only once did New York manage to cut the deficit to single digits in the fourth quarter.

The numbers are just as lopsided. Boston’s offensive rating sits at 120.8 for the season, but that number jumps to 135.1 when they play New York. On the other hand, the Knicks post a solid 117.5 offensive rating overall, but that dips to 112.4 against Boston.

So why does Boston’s offense go nuclear against the Knicks, while New York’s sputters relative to expectation?

In this piece, I’ll attempt to unpack that question ahead of the teams' final regular season meeting tonight in Madison Square Garden. With both squads seemingly on their way to a second-round showdown, we’ll find out whether New York can solve this puzzle, or if we were simply wrong about this team being “built” to challenge the champs.

I THINK THE best place start is to highlight what makes both the Knicks and Celtics so unique, and top offenses in the NBA.

For Boston, it’s simple: they want to play five-out, spread you out, create driving gaps, and hunt mismatches. It’s the blueprint of ideal modern offense -- and the Celtics are probably the only team in the league that can run it this effectively without sacrificing anything on the defensive end. That’s how absurd their personnel is.

When you watch them, you’ll see constant mismatch hunting, especially from their two All-Star scorers: Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Tatum has become a dominant downhill driver as he’s added strength and continued refining his game. With five-out spacing, the Celtics force weakside defenders into impossible decisions -- help and give up a three, or stay home and let Tatum get all the way to the rim.

Meanwhile, Brown loves to get smaller defenders switched onto him and use his strength to get to his spots, then rise up and shoot over the top. He’s less efficient than Tatum overall, but he’s still averaging 24.2 points per 75 possessions -- a high-level scorer by any measure.

So what happens when you try to cut these driving gaps? That’s when Boston kills you from deep. They average a league-high 48 three-point attempts per game, not because they hunt threes, but because they hunt rim shots, and when those are taken away, they spray it out.

Possession after possession, you’ll see them drive and kick -- sometimes three or four times in a row -- looking for a rim attempt. Eventually, the defense can’t keep up, and someone is left wide open on the perimeter. What makes them so lethal is that every Celtic on the floor can both shoot and attack a closeout.

Nobody benefits more from that than Derrick White, who’s quietly become one of the best catch-and-shoot players in the league. With even the slightest gap help he makes you pay.

Tatum acts as the team’s de facto point guard with his improved playmaking, but White gives them another point guard presence. You can’t go under screens against him because of his shooting, so Boston will often clear a side and let him run pick-and-roll with Tatum or Brown. If you blitz the ball, White can hit a freed up Tatum or Brown. If you switch, now it's Tatum or Brown with a smaller defender on the empty side.

Also, notice the way Boston is court mapped in this clip. They’ve placed Payton Pritchard in the corner, guarded by Tyrese Haliburton, while Al Horford is stationed above the break, guarded by Myles Turner. It’s a subtle but important detail -- by putting Haliburton, not Turner, on the weak side, Boston removes Indiana’s best shot blocker from the help position.

Unless Luke Kornet is on the floor, Boston always has a stretch big out there with either Kristaps Porzingis or Horford. Not only do they drag rim protectors out of the paint, but they’re also fully integrated into the offense. Porzingis is a nightmare in pick-and-pop actions. With his elite shooting and quick trigger, he's a less mobile bigs worst nightmare.

Horford has the same quick release, and he’s also developed into a sneaky closeout attacker. You already know you can’t closeout wild at Tatum, Brown, or White because they’ll drive by you, but don’t think it’s any safer to do that against Horford. The offense flows no matter who they spray it out too.

The spacing also unlocks an unexpected advantage: offensive rebounding. With everyone so spread out, it’s tough to locate bodies to box out. White and Jrue Holiday, both bigger guards, love flying in from the perimeter to crash the glass. Missed three's typically result in long rebounds, where these two guards are in perfect position to grab them.

FOR THE KNICKS, the roster looks similar on paper. They also prioritize spacing, often play with a stretch five, and surround their stars with players who can dribble, pass, and shoot. But the way they use that space is different.

For starters, the Knicks' offense is more heliocentric. While both teams find ways to get everybody involved, the Knicks are much more reliant a single player -- Jalen Brunson -- to drive offense. According to Thinking Basketball's database, Derrick White leads the Celtics in time of possession at 29%, meanwhile Brunson is leading the league at 50% -- a massive gap that speaks to how much of the offense runs through him.

Averaging 26.1 PPG on +2.9% relative true shooting, Brunson uses his strength, footwork, and body control in ways that make him look like a 6'1 post-up big. But don’t be fooled -- he’s also incredibly shifty, with a tight handle and a smooth jumper that make him nearly unguardable one-on-one.

Another major difference is the Knicks aren’t generating threes the way Boston is. They average just 33.8 attempts per game, 27th in the league. Part of that is due to Brunson’s mid-range mastery, but it’s also a reflection of how Tom Thibodeau has designed the offense.

You’d think a Brunson–Karl-Anthony Towns pick-and-pop would be the staple of the attack given their skill sets, but that hasn’t really been the case. When Towns does pop off screens, it’s usually just a setup for him to attack a closeout and get downhill, or to become a playmaker.

More often than not, Towns operates in the short roll or seeks out mismatches when teams switch. He’ll take the smaller defender into the post and either score himself or find open teammates. In this clip, Towns posts up James Harden, and as Zubac creeps over to help, Josh Hart drifts into open space for an easy bucket at the rim.

Here’s a similar setup, but this time Hart cuts through to occupy the weakside defender, and Towns finds Mikal Bridges open for a corner three.

The Knicks have found creative ways to weaponize Towns’ shooting gravity. On this play, they run a flare screen for him, and both defenders jump to cover the shot. Towns reads it instantly and hits Hart cutting down the lane -- nobody left in the paint.

Then there's the flip side: when the constant off-ball cutting and movement shifts the defense, Towns becomes the one left wide open with the advantage.

The Knicks constant movement around their stars has been vital to this elite offense. Josh Hart’s ability to apply rim pressure and serve as a connective playmaker is maybe what puts this operation all together.

For starters, unlike Tatum -- an oversized creator who can see over a blitzing defense -- the Knicks rely on smaller guards like Brunson and Miles McBride to run pick-and-roll. When they’re blitzed, having players like Hart who can quickly receive, process, and move the ball keeps the advantage alive.

Hart’s connective passing and ability to pressure the rim also fuel New York’s transition game. The Knicks are second in the league with 1.18 points per possession in transition. A lot of that can be credited to Hart, who’s become a one-man fast break with his grab-and-go style, turning rebounds or turnovers into quick offense.

You might hear people question why Mikal Bridges doesn’t “do more” offensively, given the price the Knicks paid to get him. He’s not a high-volume isolation scorer or a high pick-and-roll maestro, so his contributions can go unnoticed at times. Bridges thrives as a high-IQ off-ball mover, constantly finding pockets of space and attacking when the defense is tilted. He’s averaging 17.9 points per game -- the production is there, even if it isn’t always loud.

In this clip, OG Anunoby sets an off-ball screen to free Bridges for a three, but when Bridges sees the defense overhelp, he slips behind it for an easy two.

Throughout the game, Bridges is constantly orbiting around this offense, often receiving the ball with an advantage he can immediately exploit. Here Brunson draws a double team, and Bridges movement shooting him allows him to sprint into space and can a triple.

And like Boston, the Knicks grab their share of offensive boards, but for different reasons. While the Celtics benefit from guards crashing into open space, the Knicks get their looks because they’re already occupying the paint. Their offense naturally leaves players in the paint when shots go up, well-positioned to clean up short misses from guys like Brunson and Bridges.

SO WE GET to the real question: why can Boston effortlessly run their offense against New York, but not the other way around?

If you want the simple answer, it's personnel. Boston has the luxury of fielding elite two-way players at every position. No matter who’s on the floor, they aren’t bleeding value on either end. That’s something the Knicks have tried to replicate -- adding Bridges and Anunoby over the last two seasons -- but when your two most important players are Brunson and Towns, you’re giving some of that value back on defense.

Now let's dig a little deeper.

We’ve seen this show from the start of the season. In their first matchup, New York tried drop coverage with Towns, and Tatum torched them with pull-up shooting. Even with Porzingis out, the Celtics were all in rhythm. This has also been maybe Bridges worst screen-navigation seasons, which kills any drop coverage scheme trying to fight over the top. I think the Knicks quickly realized it would have to be Anunoby as opposed to Bridges taking the Tatum assignment.

When Porzingis did play in later matchups, he punished the drop with his pick-and-pop shooting. New York tried to pre-rotate and shift defenders early in those looks during their third matchup, but Boston still picked them apart. At this point, it’s safe to say the Knicks should probably scrap the drop entirely.

They experimented with blitzing in the first game -- a desperation adjustment really. Against teams like Boston, with so many connectors and shooters, it was a tough ask. On one play, Bridges and Towns doubled Tatum off a screen. Anunoby rotated up to take away the pop from Horford, but Derrick White immediately cut into the vacated space. Tatum, with his size and vision, calmly hit White, who swung it to Jaylen Brown in the corner for yet another clean look. That’s Boston basketball: read, react, punish.

Their best defensive effort came in the third game, when they leaned more heavily into switching in the second half. Towns will never be an elite switch defender, but honestly, it might be their best bet. In drop, even when Boston isn’t killing them with pull-ups or pick-and-pop threes, Towns isn’t a reliable rim protector either. Since he's not necessarily slow for a big, let him take his chances sliding his feet on the perimeter from a stable position.

Of course switching comes with its own risks, especially against Boston. Once you start switching actions, Brunson inevitably gets brought into the play. Boston’s going to hunt him. To his credit, Brunson has held up at times, but when he gets matched up with somebody like Porzingis or Jaylen Brown, we know how good those guys are against smaller defenders.

At the end of the day, defending Boston is going to be hard for anybody, and just because the Knicks have some two way wings doesn't mean they should be able too. Mitchell Robinson hasn’t played in any of the matchups yet, and there’s hope that his mobility and rim protection could help. However, the early returns on a Towns–Robinson frontcourt defensively haven’t been great -- a 129.5 defensive rating in their minutes together -- and how willing Thibodeau is to pull his second-best offensive player off the floor for defense will be a delicate balance.

Which brings us to the other half of this issue: if you’re going to struggle to stop Boston, you have to be able to score. On paper, the Knicks should be able to -- their personnel suggests they can mimic some of the things Boston does: spread the floor, attack mismatches, create driving gaps.

Yet again, it comes down to personnel. Boston switches almost everything on defense and hasn’t paid the price for it. In fact, they’ve used it to completely erase Karl-Anthony Towns as a short roll or pick-and-pop threat -- two areas that are typically central to his offensive value. That’s forced him to operate mostly out of the post, trying to punish mismatches. Yet Boston is so versatile and disciplined defensively that he hasn’t been able to capitalize.

In three games against the Celtics this season, Towns has averaged just 15.0 points and 1.3 assists on 56.8% true shooting. Compare that to his season averages of 24.4 points and 3.1 assists on 63% true shooting, it’s a massive drop-off. Boston has done a great job keeping him in single coverage early, then sending doubles on the first dribble if they feel him starting to get a rhythm.

Some of this is on Towns. He’s looked indecisive at times, and you get the sense he just needs to believe he can dominate these matchups. Yet some of it’s also on Thibodeau. The Knicks need to be more intentional about getting him volume touches in these situations. What also doesn’t help is pairing Towns with Precious Achiuwa, like they did in the second matchup when OG Anunoby was out. That duo just makes it even easier for Boston to switch and feel comfortable that even if Towns gets going, they now have someone they can funnel the ball to on the perimeter.

A more secondary issue I've noticed is New York’s lack of second-side creation in comparison to Boston, which I think falls more on Bridges than Anunoby. Bridges was brought in to provide exactly that -- off-ball shooting, attacking closeouts, and some secondary shot creation -- but in this matchup, he hasn’t delivered. One of the luxuries the Knicks have had all year is that Brunson and Towns draw so much defensive attention that everyone else only has to operate in advantage situations. But Boston can take away that first action. When that happens, the other guys need to be creators, not just play finishers. So far, Bridges has looked hesitant in this matchup. On some of his drives, he doesn’t even look at the rim.

Back to the P-word again -- Boston’s defensive personnel makes things difficult for these guys. The way New York gets its offense -- inverted spacing to open up the floor for rim attempts -- works well against most teams. But Boston has counters, like the ability to run double bigs who don’t collapse their spacing on the other end, or their guards, White and Holiday, both being very good rim helpers for their size. They just don’t give you anything easy.

Following this point, in the most recent matchup we saw Boston put Porzingis on Hart and match Towns with Tatum or Holiday. That sounds strange, but as we talked about Boston is okay with this matchup on Towns, and it now allows Porzingis to roam when Hart is away from the action as a weaker outside shooter. More importantly, it ensures that if Brunson wants to attack Porzingis -- the slowest-footed of the bunch -- in pick-and-roll, the screener has to be Hart, not Towns. If he wants Towns in the action, now he's getting picked up by Holiday or Tatum in a switch.

Against Boston, I feel like they just start to get a little too much halfcourt Hart offense. We saw in the prelude how valuable he is, but too much turns into just a little too much Hart creation for comfort. Boston’s scheme dares the Knicks into it, and so far, it’s worked.

If there’s a reason for optimism, it’s the return of Mitchell Robinson and him getting up to speed. With him back in the fold, the Knicks can lean into a double-big look that adds rim protection and gives them a more mobile defensive anchor. But that won’t matter if Towns and Bridges don’t step up offensively. If they continue to struggle, nothing else will matter.

Tonight is the final chance for the Knicks to show they belong in the same tier as Boston. To prove that, they’ll need their stars to rise to the moment. Towns has to assert himself. Bridges has to make Boston pay when the ball swings his way with an advantage. And if Anunoby can continue flashing some on-ball juice like he has in Brunson's absence, it could be a big development for the Knicks in this matchup.