The 23 Teams Who Won't Win the NBA Finals

Daniel Waddleton

Oct 10, 2025

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EVERY YEAR THIS league gets a little deeper. There's never been more talent, with aging stars still playing at a high level while a constant influx of young talent enters the league. The Fast Break Forum's third iteration of this piece will yet again be difficult.

Every season, I limit myself to picking no more than seven teams that I believe have a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Finals, and these days, the challenge has never been more difficult. The days of the Warriors being -187 preseason favorites to win the title are long gone. There are at least one or two teams I’ve left off this list that I’ll likely be sweating about all season.

That said, I’m confident I’ll make it through another season without regrets. In past years, I’ve used this piece as a broad introduction to every team heading into the season. This time around, it’s focused on one thing only: explaining why each of these teams falls short of my inner circle of true contenders.

Here are the 23 teams that won’t win the NBA Finals this season.

Note: This isn’t a power ranking, and the tiers don’t reflect which teams I think are better than others.

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Tier 8 - The Tank-a-Thon

Utah Jazz

This team is like a windshield that needs to defrost -- you’ll be able to drive eventually, but right now you can’t see enough and patience is required so nobody gets hurt.

They’ve built a young core, but there are questions everywhere. The point-guard hierarchy of Isaiah Collier, Keyonte George, and Walter Clayton Jr. will take time to crystallize. Ace Bailey has the makings of the future star, but that won’t happen overnight. Are Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler trade chips or foundational pieces? And the lottery-wing bets -- Cody Williams and Taylor Hendricks -- have been disappointments so far, though Utah is surely still hopeful.

Come check back on Utah in 2027.

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Brooklyn Nets

I’m completely uninterested in this Nets season. Five first-round picks in one draft would’ve been a chance to create some buzz, and instead the Nets made one of the most confusing drafts in recent memory. Drafting overlapping archetypes or deep project players, and making not a single trade.

Between a muddled roster and a directionless offseason, this team isn’t competing for anything meaningful this year except lottery odds.

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Washington Wizards

For the first time in a decade, the Wizards finally look like a franchise with direction. Will Dawkins has stripped the roster and staff down to the studs and begun rebuilding with actual intention, which included moving off unserious pieces like Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma last season.

They’re roster has some really intriguing talent, but they are still in need of that transformative star to tie it all together, so one more year in the lottery certainly wouldn’t be the worst way for this season to go. You have been warned though, relevancy is finally in the Wizards future.

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Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are moving towards being a good team, albeit it slowly, but ultimately in the right direction. They’ve quietly built an intriguing young core that fits together, a core that includes a couple players who have real star-path outcomes if things break right. One more lottery trip wouldn’t hurt their long-term outlook, but at some point you also want to see a shift toward more serious basketball, especially from LaMelo Ball.

I’m also genuinely intrigued by their rookie class of Kon Kunnapel, Liam McNeely, and Ryan Kalkbrenner, and not because they are all white. I think all three project as solid, plug-and-play guys who can find roles on this team and contribute right away.

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Tier 7 - What Exactly Are They Building

Phoenix Suns

The Suns might play normal basketball again! Trading Kevin Durant and reshaping the roster has given Devin Booker something resembling an actual team -- a secondary ball-handler, wings who defend at a high level, and centers who are capable of providing positive value.

They’re still light on playmaking and the outside shooting will run cold some nights, but this roster from a day-to-day perspective should be a major upgrade from whatever the last two years were. I also think we are in store for a return to All-NBA honors for Booker.

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New Orleans Pelicans

There’s irresponsible, and then there’s trading your unprotected first-round pick next season to draft Derek Queen at 13. You can see why the front office has optimism for this season: Zion Williamson finally looks in shape, and the young two-way wing tandem of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III is healthy, but that’s a lot of confidence for a team with such a fragile floor.

If anything goes wrong, they may have just handed away a top-four pick in what’s projected to be a loaded 2026 draft. And if you know anything about the New Orleans Pelicans, something ALWAYS goes wrong.

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Chicago Bulls

Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf has turned 40 wins into the new 60 in Chicago. Josh Giddey is the perfect new mascot for this era, a player good enough to raise your floor, flawed enough to cap your ceiling.

The roster is full of guys who’d be great seventh or eighth men on real contenders but are overtaxed as core pieces here, along with holdovers from the last mediocrity cycle like Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic still lingering. The one real spark: Matas Buzelis looks like he might actually have star-level upside in his future.

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Sacramento Kings

The Kings are basically the 2023 Bulls in purple. They added Dennis Schröder and a wave of rookies, but they’re still trying to win with a collection of high-usage offensive players who bring no value on either end without the ball. Eventually they’ll reset, but until then, expect diminishing returns from a talented roster.

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Toronto Raptors

The impact of redundancy is often overlooked when projecting team success (hello, 2024-25 Phoenix Suns). Redundancy is the defining trait of this Raptors roster with their best players sharing the same strengths, the same weaknesses, and want to attack from the same real estate on the floor.

That puts a lot of pressure on role guys like Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, and rookie Collin Murray-Boyles to plug the holes in spot-up shooting, off-ball defense, and connective playmaking. There’s undeniable talent here but it has to make basketball sense. Assuming it doesn't, this could be a very Phoenix-y season in the six.

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Tier 6 - Sleeping Giants Hitting Snooze One More Time

San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama is already a top-five player, but 44.5 wins assumes the team is ready to win now, and that feels premature. They’re still incredibly young, with players in either undefined roles or undefined as players entirely. The shooting projects as shaky, some of their best players feel redundant, and the West is too stacked to shoe-string and bubble-gum your way into the playoffs.

They’re coming, just not this season.

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Portland Trail Blazers

Portland disappeared from national relevance after the Damian Lillard trade, but two years later the roster is quietly legit. Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija were sharp additions on the wing, Donovan Clingan already looks like an All-Defense anchor, and bringing in Jrue Holiday will be a force multiplier to what was a top-five defense following the All-Star break last season.

This year is about figuring out what they have in Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe without Anfernee Simons in the way. Next year, once Lillard returns, this group could start climbing back into the West’s playoff mix. However for now, they will settle being a team everybody hates to see on the schedule.

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Tier 5 - Stale Bread That Still Toasts

Memphis Grizzlies

Even after trading Desmond Bane, Memphis still profiles as a playoff team. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should look much better playing next to real advantage creators like Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., and their young role players continues to trend upward.

Ty Jerome was also one of my favorite signings of the off-season. Memphis found tons of success in the early 2020’s with backup point guard Tyus Jones, and Jerome (22.5 points per 75 possessions on +5.6 relative true shooting last season) fits that same profile as a guard who can run second units and stabilize the starting group when Morant misses time.

The swing piece is the same one it’s been for years: can Morant be healthy enough -- and shoot well enough -- for any of this to matter past April?

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Miami Heat

They’re going to be spectacularly boring, overwhelming you with basic competency some fanbases could only dream of. Miami checks the boxes of a good 82-game team: on-ball scoring, secondary playmaking, functional defense, and a head coach who squeezes every drop from a normal roster.

They even ditched the “Heat Culture” court, which feels like a good omen heading into 2025-26. They aren’t winning the finals, but you can take their over 37.5 win total and then pay the bill on a date in the spring.

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Tier 4 - The IF Healthy Fan Club

Boston Celtics

After nearly a decade of deep playoff runs, this might be the first year Boston takes a step back. The frontcourt is thin and while the backcourt is talented, it’s mostly one-way.

The trio of Derrick White, Peyton Pritchard, and Anfernee Simons bombing threes will be fun and weirdly productive, but without their usual defensive backbone this version of the Celtics feels more like a solid regular-season team than a June threat.

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Milwaukee Bucks

There’s been some creeping optimism around Milwaukee, but I don’t really see it. “Point Giannis with shooters” sounds great in theory -- some nights the offense will explode -- but it isn’t sustainable across a season or four playoff rounds.

Outside of Giannis they have no consistent rim pressure, the defense projects as middle-of-the-pack, and there’s no other real advantage creators on the team to keep them afloat when Giannis sits (and he hasn’t played 70 games since 2019). That’s not a contender profile.

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Indiana Pacers

Despite how “lightning in a bottle” it felt, I believe Indiana genuinely had a chance to replicate last year’s success and defend their conference title if not for the unfortunate roster changes. With Myles Turner gone and Tyrese Haliburton's season on the shelf, they’ve lost the very identity that got them to the Finals.

We will still see glimpses of last seasons magic, intense full-court pressure, pace and unselfishness offensively, still punch above their talent level, but without their engine this sports car isn't going to drive like last season.

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Dallas Mavericks

I'm not a believer in this team’s offense staying afloat. Anthony Davis won’t be optimized on a roster where most of their talent are fours and fives. As much as I love Cooper Flagg, I don’t love him enough to be a high functioning year-one starting point guard. Their best advantage creator and shot-maker is the same player, who we aren’t even certain will play this season.

Nico Harrison will get his wish of a great defense, but you still have to score to win consistently, and Dallas’s offense has a very low floor.

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Tier 3 - Process Sixers

Philadelphia 76ers

On paper, the Sixers absolutely have the talent to reach the Finals. Even at 80%, Joel Embiid is still a top-10 player, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are theoretically perfect co-stars, and the supporting cast has enough two-way competency to survive playoff minutes especially if VJ Edgecombe pops early.

Unfortunately for this franchise, the games aren't played on paper, and the only consistent thing about the Process era is that we never see this team fully healthy when it matters. If this season ends the same way as so many others, it’s fair to wonder whether this is the final chapter of the Embiid era in Philadelphia.

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Tier 2 - Frisky Eastern Conference Squads

Detroit Pistons

There’s a reason Detroit was my favorite hypothetical Kevin Durant landing spot, and why I’m hoping they swing a deal for Lauri Markkanen at some point. This is a good team that could really use a shot maker on the wing. Last postseason’s heavy reliance on even a guy like Dennis Schröder said it all, this roster is a creator or two short.

The Pistons have an offensive engine in Cade Cunningham and a nasty but disciplined defense, but they’re missing that low-maintenance, efficient scorer who can lighten Cade’s load without getting in his way. Add a player like Markkanen -- someone who can give you 20+ a night with no wasted motion -- and Detroit suddenly has the missing piece to become a legitimate threat in the East.

Orlando Magic

I’m bullish on Orlando in the regular season as this high-level defensive team with enough functional offensive players to live in the 48-52 win range. However, playoff basketball demands efficient half-court offense, and Jamahl Mosley’s scheme still leans too heavily on “Paolo-ball” without the results to justify it.

A more egalitarian approach could help everyone. But I'd also argue their offensive issues don’t end there, as even despite Desmond Bane’s adding spacing they won’t take or make enough threes to scale in the postseason. High regular-season floor, low playoff ceiling.

Atlanta Hawks

I’m drinking the Hawks Kool-Aid again. Say what you want about Trae Young, but 26.1 points, 10.3 assists and 58.3 TS% over five years is elite production, and a +8.1 career offensive rating differential is proof of concept he’s driving offense. This is also the best team of the Young-Era, length and defense, secondary playmaking, and a yin-yang big man pairing with contrasting skill sets for however the team wants to play.

My only concern is the ultimate goal, and that’s because winning in the playoffs with a small guard as your offensive engine is a tough ask, especially when teams like Miami have already published the handbook on how to disrupt it. If any Young-era team has the horses to withstand that pressure, it’s this one, but the questions are real. With free agency looming, the way this season ends could determine whether Trae finishes his prime in Atlanta.

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Tier 1 - Finals Level Threats

Los Angeles Clippers

I don’t see any reason Los Angeles won’t be an elite regular season team. They’re deep, they defend, and Harden + Zubac keep their offensive floor high every night.

The questions show up in April and May: Can Kawhi Leonard stay on the floor? Can Harden stay effective when teams see him for seven straight games? Can defensive aces like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. survive offensively in a series? This is a great 82-game team with 16-game problems that keep them out of my top seven contenders.

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Golden State Warriors

If the season skipped straight to the playoffs, the Warriors would be in my seven-team contender pool. They went 22-7 after the Jimmy Butler trade last year, and the Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton free agency additions only raise this teams ceiling.

The issue is getting there. They’re relying on three stars in their mid-to-late 30s without amazing depth to survive eight months of basketball. A fully healthy, properly paced Warriors team could beat anyone I have no doubt, I just don’t believe they can make it there in one piece.

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And so, if you’ve been playing along with the exercise, the 2026 NBA champion lives somewhere inside this group: the Thunder, Nuggets, Lakers, Timberwolves, Rockets, Cavaliers, or Knicks. I'll have a piece coming out sometime next week giving the reason for this group I chose.

May the streak continue...