Six Wasn’t Enough… Let’s Play Seven!

Daniel Waddleton

Jun 20, 2025

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FOR THE FIRST time since 2016, we’re heading to a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.

We always say the best two words in sports are Game 7. And while that’s true, it’s rare we actually get to experience it with everything on the line. Unlike sports like football or college basketball -- where the title is decided in one game and therefore anything can happen -- the NBA Finals usually end a bit more anticlimactically. There's often a sense of inevitability. The better team pulls through. Or at the very least the team who eventually won already had a cushion in the series, knowing a loss wouldn’t mean the end and there would be another game.

But when we do get a Game 7 for the championship in a league like the NBA, MLB, or NHL, it’s special. It’s rare. It’s unforgettable. The last time it happened in the NBA was 2016. MLB? 2019. NHL? It actually happened last year, but before that, also 2019.

This series has already been one of the most unique Finals matchups in recent memory -- and it gets one more chapter on Sunday night.

Regardless of Game 7's result, this Pacers run is going to be remembered forever. A team that entered the playoffs as a 4-seed with a pedestrian +2.1 net rating, good for 13th best in the league. A team that many people picked to lose in Round 1 to Milwaukee.

I’ll pat myself on the back and say I was higher on Indiana than most. Since the start of 2025, they quietly played at a 58-win pace, and I liked their draw in the Eastern Conference bracket. I picked them to make the Conference Finals before the playoffs began, and once I saw them matched up with the Knicks in Round 2, I picked them in six to reach the Finals.

Yet, even I didn’t see this coming.

The Finals is where I drew the line on the Indy magic. On this stage? Against a team with the greatest net rating in NBA history (+12.7)? One of the greatest defenses of all time? The league’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, leading the way?

I thought Indiana had no shot. I’ll admit it.

I didn’t know if they could generate offense the same way. I didn’t know if their high-pressure defense would hold up against Shai. I didn’t know if their depth would matter when facing arguably the deepest team in the field.

I picked the Thunder in five. I said it would be a “fun but quick” series.

I was so wrong.

And yet, I should’ve known better. Because every time you say, Alright, the gig’s up, it’s time to go home -- they spit in your face and do it again.

Both coaches have made many adjustments throughout this series. They’ve mixed and matched lineups, tweaked schemes, pulled every lever, pressed every button. There’s not much left to change. Both sides have seen everything the other has to offer. Now it’s up to the players -- with a shot at immortality on the line -- to go out and deliver.

Let’s quickly dive into the biggest things to watch for in our final game of the 2024–25 NBA season.

Continuing to Monitor Indiana’s Defensive Adjustments

The most obvious shift in Game 6 didn’t require a film junkie to notice. After five straight games of full-court pressure, the Pacers completely backed off. According to Caitlin Cooper on Twitter, their average pickup point in Games 1–5 was 56.9 feet. In Game 6, it dropped all the way to 41.4.

There are a few reasons this likely happened. First, Andrew Nembhard has drawn the SGA assignment in this series and done an admirable job. However, with Tyrese Haliburton clearly limited, Nembhard would not be required to take on a much larger offensive burden. You can’t expect one player to guard the league MVP 94-feet and then be the primary ball handler on the other end. Part of this adjustment felt like it was fatigue management.

However, believe there was a schematic element too. The Pacers in turn ramped up their halfcourt intensity, and sent more double teams at SGA than at any point in the series. It completely disrupted the Thunder’s offensive rhythm. This was the first major defensive shift from Rick Carlisle, and Oklahoma City clearly wasn’t prepared for it.

A more subtle adjustment was the increased use of Pascal Siakam on Jalen Williams. Obviously, Siakam can’t take that matchup for 40+ minutes given his offensive responsibilities, but spelling Aaron Nesmith at times with Siakam gave Indiana fresh legs and a different look. Williams torched Nesmith in Game 5 and started Game 6 in a similar rhythm until the switch was made. Siakam was excellent on-ball defensively those possessions, and I’d expect to see even more of it in Game 7.

What Jalen Williams Are We Getting Sunday?

Following a 40-point two-way masterclass in Game 5, some wondered whether Williams might leave this series with Finals MVP honors. Then Game 6 happened: 16 points on sub-50% shooting, and a -40 plus-minus in a 27-point loss.

I don't think it's hyperbolic to say the Thunder’s title hopes probably rest on his shoulders Sunday night. The defense will be there -- he’s proven this season to be one of the very best in the league on that end -- but Oklahoma City needs his offense. He’s the only player on this team outside of Gilgeous-Alexander who can consistently create his own shot, and his performance has been a clear indicator of team success.

Williams in playoff wins (15 games):

23.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.1 APG, 58.4 TS%

Williams in playoff losses (7 games):

18.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, 47.2 TS%

And those numbers in losses include a brilliant Game 3 against Denver where he was spectacular in a narrow defeat. Take that game out, and the dip is even more dramatic. The Thunder need Williams at his absolute best in Game 7.

Can Haliburton Continue To Be Effective Despite the Injury?

Do I think there was a bit of gamesmanship in the way Indiana reported Haliburton’s injury? Absolutely. Do I think it was a total rope-a-dope? Not at all, as he was clearly limited in Game 6.

His nine pick-and-rolls were by far the fewest of any postseason game this year. There were also several moments where he had chances to push the pace in transition and instead slowed things down, going against his usual instincts.

And yet, he still managed to be impactful. From a schematic perspective, even a compromised Haliburton is treated like a star. The Thunder continued to face-guard him without help, which opens the floor for his teammates and leaves less OKC defenders rotating on advantages created by Indiana.

Finishing with 14 points and five assists, he was aggressive when he absolutely had to be, and his jumper looked good despite the injury. Defensively is where we thought it could really be an issue -- he’s probably a below-average defender even when fully healthy -- but he fought hard on that end. He made some key plays off-ball in passing lanes to disrupt some of OKC's actions.

If Indiana is going to finish this run with a title, they’ll need a similar two-way effort from an injured Haliburton in Game 7.

OKC's Starting Lineup

One of the biggest things to watch for in Game 7 will be what lineup Oklahoma City opens with. Mark Daigneault went with Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein to start Games 1–3, then shifted back to the double-big look in Game 4. Here's the numbers.

Small Ball (40 min): Gilgeous-Alexander - Wallace - Dort - Williams - Holmgren

ORTG: 115.3 | DRTG: 103.5 | NET: +11.8

Double-Big (19 min): Gilgeous-Alexander - Dort - Williams - Holmgren - Hartenstein

ORTG: 128.6 | DRTG: 119.5 | NET: +9.1

Both groups have been effective, but there’s a clear difference. The smaller lineup has been far better defensively, as it's removed the one weak spot Indiana has consistently hunted in Hartenstein, allowing OKC to switch across all five positions.

The bigger lineup has been better offensively, mostly because of the role Hartenstein has played as a screener and playmaker. The Pacers have been picking up both SGA and Williams really high all series, and Hartenstein’s screens have helped free them up. He’s also been a connector -- whether it’s short roll playmaking or dribble handoffs, helping grease the wheels for this offense.

The question is: what does Daigneault prioritize in Game 7? The Thunder have been dominant when they build early leads, so this could end up being a massive decision. Could we even see a wildcard like Alex Caruso, who started the third quarter in Game 6?

Homecourt Advantage

Let’s close with the most simple reason I’m picking Oklahoma City to win Game 7: they’re at home.

Sometimes basketball is simpler then it seems. It's not always about scheme, matchups, or adjustments, it’s about the setting. The Thunder are 10–2 at home in these playoffs with a staggering +20.7 net rating. The only two losses came by a combined two points.

On the road? They’re 5–5 with a -6.2 net rating.

The role players have shot it better from three at home, the defense has looked way more energized with that electric crowd behind them, and they just seem more comfortable playing in that building -- which makes sense, considering they’ve played nearly 60 games there this season.

That’s enough to sell me. I’ve got OKC closing this one out on Sunday night in our first Game 7 in nearly a decade!