Oklahoma City's Championship Forecast - Thunderstorm's Ahead!

This core may be young, but they are wise beyond their years.

Daniel Waddleton

Oct 24, 2024

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NOT EVEN IN his wildest dreams could Thunder General Manager Sam Presti have envisioned the 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder to look like this half a decade ago.

When the Thunder traded Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019, it marked what many assumed would be the beginning of a lengthy and uncertain rebuild. Presti leaned into the challenge, embarking on a strategic asset accumulation approach that would test the patience of even the most devoted OKC fans.

In the aftermath of the George trade, the Thunder also shed other established players like franchise legend Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Al Horford and Dennis Schroder throughout the years. Each deal brought in more picks, adding to what would become an almost laughable stockpile of draft capital.

The early 2020s Thunder were in constant flux, with raw high-upside young players mixed together with veterans who would often be traded before they'd even unpacked their bags. To Presti’s credit though, no matter how many questions were asked or how poor the on-court product was, he stuck to his guns and trusted his process.

Now here we are, in a place NBA fans probably feel like they have seen before.

The past has a funny way of repeating itself, and somehow Presti now finds himself in familiar territory. Once again, he's at the helm of a young, hyper-talented roster brimming with potential, much like the days when Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook were ready to take the league by storm. The past may not have unfolded as hoped, but this time, armed with lessons from the past, Presti is primed to write a different ending.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are officially my 2024-25 NBA Finals pick, and I’m going to talk about the four main reasons why.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Ascension to Stardom

When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the centerpiece of the trade package that sent All-NBA forward Paul George to Los Angeles, few saw him as a player with MVP-level potential.

Shai was an intriguing prospect coming out of college -- he had great size and length for his position and a strong feel for the game on both ends. During stretches at Kentucky, he showed an ability to score at will. As a freshman, he displayed excellent change of pace and body control on his drives, qualities that sound very familiar when talking about him today.

Selected 10th overall by the Los Angeles Clippers, Shai appeared in all 82 games as a rookie, averaging a little over 10 points a night. His promising start made him the primary target for the Thunder when the Clippers pursued George, and the team ultimately parted ways with the 20-year-old combo guard for a chance to team the All-NBA forward and Kawhi Leonard up in Los Angeles.

Shai was raw, but his talent was undeniable. Fortunately, there’s no better mentor for a young guard looking to become a future offensive engine than Chris Paul, who joined Shai in OKC's backcourt for the 2019-20 season. That Thunder team -- expected to finish last in the Western Conference -- shocked everyone when making the playoffs. Despite losing in seven games to the Houston Rockets, Shai was given a valuable run of postseason experience in the bubble.

As the story goes, Chris Paul would be traded to Phoenix soon after that series, and it became Shai's team. Over the next few seasons, he had the chance to develop as the team’s lead guard without heavy expectations or pressure, working through growing pains with little outside noise. Meanwhile, Presti was building a roster through the draft, aiming to surround Shai with players who would empower him and complement his strengths.

In 2022-23, Shai had a full breakout, raising his scoring average from 24.5 to 31.4 points per game with a 7% increase in true shooting percentage. By 2023-24, he was nearly the league’s MVP, averaging 30 points again and leading the Thunder to the top seed in the Western Conference.

In the 2024 postseason, Shai proved his ability in a postseason setting. Over 10 games, he averaged 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists on 50/43/79 shooting splits. He was able to get downhill at will, creating efficient pull-up jumpers and floaters while shouldering an offensive load of 49.9% (the percentage of possessions a player is directly involved in per 100 possessions), ranking fifth among playoff players.

This season, Shai is my pick to capture his first MVP award. I expect his playmaking -- the weakest part of his game -- to keep improving with another season under Mark Daigneault, who over the years has been crafting and refining a perfect offense around his star. If Shai makes a leap as a passer, he’ll enter that Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic postseason player tier.

Every championship team needs a true “1A” superstar, and OKC has a bona fide one

The 2022 Draft Class

Presti gave himself plenty of bites at the apple to acquire young stars with his roster-building approach over the past half-decade. No team in the NBA has made more first-round selections in the 2020s than OKC.

In the early years of the rebuild, he selected some intriguing prospects, but no one quite "popped" in the way he was hoping. That changed in 2022, when Presti held three picks in the top 12. With two of those, he selected Chet Holmgren (2nd) and Jalen Williams (12th), and both have already paid huge dividends for OKC at just 22 and 23 years old, respectively.

Jalen Williams, or “J-Dub,” made his mark first in 2022-23 while Chet Holmgren was sidelined with a foot injury that kept him out for the season. Though William wasn’t widely recognized early on, that changed quickly after the All-Star break, when he nearly stole Rookie of the Year from Paolo Banchero.

Jalen Williams’ 2022-23 Season Splits:

• Pre All-Star Break: 12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists on 57.9% True Shooting

• Post All-Star Break: 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 64% True Shooting

It quickly became clear that Williams was going to be a cornerstone for this team. His potential was so evident that Daigneault openly expressed that they wanted Williams to be more aggressive, willing to trade some of his efficiency for higher volume if it meant he’d take on a larger role in the offense.

In his second season, Williams’ offensive skills continued to impress, but now we also began to see his All-Defensive potential. He’s shown himself to be an extremely versatile defender, capable of switching across positions without ending up in mismatches. Due to the Thunder’s roster, he’s often asked to size up and guard bigger wings, but he's not limited to that. In the second round of the playoffs last season, he was handed Kyrie Irving as his primary assignment and did an impressive job.

Heading into year three, I believe he has All-NBA potential. While he may not make a team this year, at just 23, he’s already operating in that territory. There are virtually no holes in his game, and if he can build on what was a peaks-and-valleys first playoff run in 2024, the sky is the limit.

Speaking of limitless potential, Chet Holmgren is truly a “no ceiling” type of player. Heading into last season, there were questions about whether he could handle playing center for a full season given his slim frame. He quickly put those doubts to rest by playing all 82 games in 2023-24.

Holmgren was incredibly impactful in these games too, averaging 16.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game while shooting 37% from three on over four attempts per game, all at 7'1. His unique blend of size, shooting, and defensive presence has made him a perfect fit for the Thunder’s evolving roster.

Holmgren's shooting last season was a key factor in making the Thunder’s offense so difficult to guard. With no traditional big man, SGA and Williams had ample space to operate, giving OKC’s attack a new level of versatility. Holmgren also possesses legitimate guard skills for a center -- he can attack closeouts when defenses overcommit to shutting down his three-point shot, and he’s shown the ability to both score and pass off the dribble.

Building on his guard skills, one of Oklahoma City’s best weapons last season was Chet’s ability to grab defensive rebounds and push the ball in transition. This “grab-and-go” often led to easy points or forced cross-matches, allowing OKC’s scorers to exploit favorable matchups.

We’ve also seen Holmgren run offense in the half court, like inverted pick-and-pop's with an elite shooter in Isaiah Joe, or creating mid-range scoring opportunities for himself off the bounce.

As his skills and strength continue to grow, I expect him to end up the team’s second option offensively, with Williams falling into more of an ultimate Swiss army knife role. Regardless of who becomes the clear second scorer, the Thunder have two potential top-30 players in Holmgren and Williams heading into the season with tons of room to grow. Together with SGA, they’re set to lay waste on the Western Conference for years to come.

The Lessons from Dallas

Heading into last season, there were expectations that the Thunder would be a playoff team for the first time since the bubble. But as they cemented themselves as a top-three seed already by the All-Star break, Presti faced some criticism for standing pat at the trade deadline.

Despite holding the largest war chest of draft capital in the league, he chose not to acquire a center or an extra two-way wing -- two elements that analysts predicted would be holes in the roster come playoff time. He wanted this group to get their first taste of postseason experience together and have the chance to evaluate "what they got" in a playoff setting.

As it turned out, the Thunder could've used those pieces in the second round against Dallas.

While they held the Mavericks to their worst offensive rating of any Western Conference series, Dallas managed to grab 12.2 offensive rebounds per game, many of them at critical moments. An elite rebounding center might have tipped the series in OKC’s favor.

Another challenge that emerged was the Josh Giddey problem. As the series progressed, Giddey minutes were seen less and less, dropping all the way to just 10 minutes in the deciding Game 6.

His lack of a three point shot allowed the Mavericks to defend him with their centers, who could camp out in the paint and clog up driving lanes. Giddey also struggled physically, appearing overmatched on offense and leaving him somewhat of a liability defensively. It was clear after this series he was likely going to not be apart of OKC’s plans moving forward.

In the offseason, Presti acted decisively with the lessons he had learned about his team. He traded Giddey for Alex Caruso, a defensive ace from Chicago, and signed Isaiah Hartenstein, the best available center on the market, to a three-year, $87 million contract.

The Hartenstein acquisition in particular, was a major step forward. He’s the archetype Oklahoma City lacked, this big-bodied center who can hold his own against teams with towering post scorers, and a player who's greatest strength is rebounding. He also gives Daigneault a chance to spell Holmgren from playing minutes exclusively at center. Now as a four he can become more of a roamer on defense, and a size mismatch on offense.

The beauty of Hartenstein’s fit goes beyond filling gaps; he enhances what the Thunder already excel at. A very skilled passer, he excelled as an offensive hub and short role passer in New York, skills that should mesh perfectly with OKC’s personnel.

By addressing the weaknesses exposed in the Dallas series without sacrificing their identity, OKC has set itself up for a deeper run. Alex Caruso adds another suffocating, switchable defender who won’t be a liability on offense, while Hartenstein brings a new dimension the team lacked last season.

They Might Finish First In Defense

When people discuss OKC, they often highlight Shai and the Thunder’s incredibly skilled five-out offense. But what’s not talked about enough is just how elite this team could be defensively this season. Last year, the Thunder ranked fourth in defense, and there’s every reason to believe they’ll only improve

Just on the surface, OKC replaced likely their weakest defender, Giddey, with Caruso, one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball. Their biggest weakness last season, allowing offensive rebounds (where they ranked 29th) should be less of an issue with Hartenstein now manning 25-30 minutes a game. Beyond those areas, this team last season had virtually no defensive gaps. OKC now has the personnel to guard any player or offense in the league.

Need to defend a quick guard who likes to play through screens and handoffs like Stephen Curry or Tyrese Maxey? They’ve got Caruso and Cason Wallace, two of the best screen navigators in the game.

Faced against big, stocky do-it-all playmakers like Luka Doncic or LeBron James? Lu Dort and Williams are built to match up with them.

Going up against dominant bigs like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Joel Embiid? The Thunder can use a big and agile Hartenstein as the primary defender, while allowing Holmgren to roam and disrupt shots at the rim playing alongside him.

Whatever offensive question an opponent poses, OKC has a defensive answer.

It’s not just individual matchups either, their team defense is set to be exceptional. This Thunder team will be incredibly disruptive off the ball, hounding ball handlers at the point of attack while their long, athletic off-ball defenders lurk in passing lanes to create turnovers. They finished tied for second in deflections last year, and now added Caruso, the league leader in deflections last season at 3.4 a game.

I shouldn’t breeze past the Holmgren roamer point either. Last season, opponents shot 9.7% worse than expected at the rim with him as the closest defender, that’s elite rim protection. And it’s not like he’s some drop-coverage statue; Holmgren is insanely switchable and can thrive in just about any scheme. Playing alongside another big should give him more chances to camp near the rim as a roamer, while still having the flexibility to slide to the five when they want to switch everything.

Who can even be “hunted” on this roster? Consider a starting lineup of Shai, Caruso, Dort, Williams, and Holmgren. The so-called “target” would be Shai, who just led the league in steals and has been a career neutral defender at worst. When some of them go to the bench it's not like anybody gets a break, Cason Wallace will come in with fresh legs, ready to defend the opposing point guard 94 feet from the basket.

My semi-bold prediction is this team will finish first in defense this season, as even on nights when they aren't at full strength they have the defensive depth to not skip a beat. They are young and engaged, and I expect them to be one of those rosters that opposing teams hate to see on their schedule.

This team is fun, exciting, and incredibly talented. With Daigneault pulling the levers behind the scenes as one of the most innovative coaches in the association, I feel good about this pick despite the 9-1 preseason odds. They are my official pick to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in June.