Starting Five V9: NBA Finals Edition
- danny52615
- Jun 3
- 13 min read
Daniel Waddleton
June 3, 2025
For our final Starting Five of the 2024–25 season, we’re diving into five different subplots of this year’s NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers.
This has been one of the most entertaining playoffs I can remember, and this matchup feels like the perfect way to cap it off. I’m expecting a both fun and competitive series. Let's break it all down from every angle.
The Paul George Sponsored NBA Finals
It was a disappointing year for Paul George, who averaged just 16.2 points per game -- his lowest mark since 2014–15 -- after signing a four-year, $212 million max contract with the Philadelphia 76ers last July. It's not all bad though Paul, if there's one thing you can hold your head high about coming out of this season, it’s that your fingerprints are all over this year’s NBA Finals.
George is a former member of both Finals squads, and the trades that sent him out became key building blocks in constructing these championship-level rosters.
The obvious one is Oklahoma City. When the Thunder traded a 29-year-old George in 2019 -- fresh off a third place finish in the MVP voting -- to the Los Angeles Clippers, the return was a rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a record-setting haul of draft capital.
You know how the story goes from here. SGA goes on to become this season's MVP, the Thunder drafted Jalen Williams with one of those picks, and we sit here today with OKC four games away from their first NBA title.
It’s easy to praise Thunder GM Sam Presti for pulling off a deal that may have laid the foundation for a mid-to-late 2020s dynasty. However, I want to rewind even further and focus on the first Paul George trade, the one Presti made to acquire him in the first place.
Back in 2017, George had made it clear he wanted to play for the Lakers. He was on an expiring contract and was upfront with the league: if Indiana didn’t trade him to L.A., he was likely leaving any other team in free agency.
Presti had just lost Kevin Durant the summer prior, and the Thunder were currently stuck in NBA purgatory -- too good to tank with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook, but not good enough to compete for a title. So he took a leap of faith, acquiring George with the risk that the ] star forward would leave after one season.
The Thunder may have never won a playoff series with George, but Presti’s ability to not only land him -- but then convince him to re-sign -- is the reason Oklahoma City is here today. Among all the savvy moves Presti has made as a GM in his career, getting George to sign that contract when all signs pointed in the opposite direction might be his most impressive.
George went on to have the best season of his career following that deal, and Presti was then able to flip him to the Clippers for the historic return we talked about that summer. Many have since speculated there was a prearranged understanding that George would eventually be sent to L.A. Either way, Presti got the contract signed, and that’s why the Thunder are now knocking on the door of a title today.
The Pacers’ side of that Paul George trade was less splashy but just as foundational. When brand new GM Chad Buchanan sent their 27-year-old franchise star to OKC for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, many fans assumed a long and ugly rebuild was upon them.
Instead of bottoming out, Indiana chose to stay competitive. From 2018–2022, the Pacers assembled some intriguing rosters -- including the Brogdon-Oladipo-Warren-Sabonis-Turner group that never fully materialized due to injuries. Indiana consistently made it a priority to stay afloat while retooling the roster.
The Pacers’ rebuild was quieter and more subtle -- built on consistently smart decisions around the margins. The 2022 NBA Draft will always be remembered as the night OKC landed both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, but Indiana’s selection of Andrew Nembhard at the top of the second round was brilliant. That same offseason, they traded Malcolm Brogdon to Boston for Aaron Nesmith. A year later, they acquired Obi Toppin from New York for basically nothing.
Sure, any great rebuild needs a big splash or two. Trading Domantas Sabonis for Tyrese Haliburton in 2022 sent shockwaves through the league at the time. Acquiring Pascal Siakam for Bruce Brown and three firsts in December of 2023 has paid massive dividends. But it’s been the blend of bold moves and subtle tweaks that has shaped this roster into one that feels perfectly balanced.
Trades have been the defining theme for both of these Finals teams. Yet, maybe the most underrated move of all was a non-trade. Despite years of rumors, Indiana never dealt Myles Turner -- and that patience is paying off in a big way now.
. . .
Heliocentric Guards Playing Different Styles
The definition of heliocentric is “having or representing the sun as the center” like in the accepted astronomical model of the solar system. In basketball terms, a heliocentric offense refers to a team that revolves around a single star, as if they are the sun.
In the case of these two Finals teams, there’s a very clear driver of each Ferrari: Tyrese Haliburton (18.8 PTS, 9.8 AST) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.8 PTS, 6.9 AST). The way these teams structure their offense -- how they map the floor, the pace they play at, the supporting cast they deploy -- all stems from the gravitational pull of their lead guard.
However, the way these two heliocentric stars operate is fundamentally different.
SGA fits the more traditional model of heliocentrism, like we have seen from guys like James Harden or Luka Doncic in the past. He dominates the ball in the halfcourt, with OKC playing a more methodical tempo when not in transition. There's less off-ball movement, and the Thunder's court mapping is designed to give Shai space to break people down and reach his sweet spots.
One of their go-to actions is this flat screen with Chet Holmgren, where SGA manipulates his defender and freezes help by disguising the direction of the screen -- allowing him to rise up from the elbows or snake his way into the paint. His playmaking then flows out of his scoring gravity. The system is built to let Shai get buckets, and then if you overhelp, he’ll make you pay.
Haliburton’s game is much different. The Pacers’ offense is built on movement, misdirection, and constant read and react. It’s organized chaos, full of drive-and-kicks, flare screens, ghost screens, basket cuts, and more. Hali will isolate when he finds a mismatch, but his job is to orchestrate advantages, not just create for himself. The goal isn’t “let Haliburton cook,” it’s “let Haliburton direct the kitchen.”
This Pacers offense is fast, but it's not just to rack up shots. They play fast to force defenses to defend multiple different actions for the entirety of the shot clock. That’s why, despite how quick they move, they only ranked seventh in pace (calculated by number of possessions per game) this season. It’s exhausting to guard, and super difficult to stay locked in when the ball is constantly pinging around.
Haliburton is the oxygen fueling that tempo -- a quick-trigger passer who rarely makes mistakes. His 5.03 assist-to-turnover ratio leads all postseason players averaging at least 25 minutes per game. Despite this organized chaos constantly unfolding around him, Hali processing speed is unmatched both in the halfcourt and in transition.
He can also make you pay with his knockdown three point shot (38.8%) if you have even the slightest miscommunication.
Hali gets off the ball way more than SGA -- or really any heliocentric star. He averages more touches per game in the postseason (95.6) than Shai (76.3), but his average touch length is shorter -- just 4.13 seconds compared to SGA’s 6.0. It’s a different kind of control, one that’s less about dominating the ball and more about guiding the rhythm of the offense.
On this play you see an example of this. The Knicks are trying to keep Jalen Brunson off Haliburton by hard hedging these screens and then recovering behind. The Pacers counter this by having Hali get off the ball skipping it to Turner and then sprinting into a DHO.
Brunson's forced to pick him up and it turns into a dribble handoff involving both Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, which if you watched any of that series you know was something the Knicks would've liked to avoid at all costs.
I guess not every team plays the same after all, huh? Silly NBA twitter!
. . .
Strength-on-Strength Matchup
The clash-of-the-titans battle in this series is clear: Indiana’s offense versus Oklahoma City’s defense.
A lot has been made of both units this postseason and for good reason. The Pacers’ cutting-edge pace-and-space attack, built on nonstop player movement and a blistering three-point shooting run, has posted a 117.7 offensive rating across 16 playoff games.
On the other end, the Thunder are registering a 104.7 defensive rating -- a mark that ranks among the greatest postseason defenses ever. Relative to league average, their -7.9 defensive rating is the third-best in NBA playoff history.
So, which side blinks first?
We just spoke about the Pacers thriving playing fast, pushing the ball off both makes and misses. If they don’t get a runout layup/dunk, they'll immediately look to hunt a cross match or flow right into hurry-up pick-and-roll, zipping the ball around and forcing defenses to guard a full 24 seconds.
The issue in this series is that OKC’s defense doesn’t break down in that chaos. If anything, they actually thrive in it. Their on-ball pressure is meant to try to speed teams up, and their versatility makes it difficult to find cross-matches. There’s no clear entry points on this defense.
They’re also one of the best switching teams in the league, making it incredibly tough for Indiana to generate the kinds of halfcourt advantages they’re used to with all their off-ball screening and cutting, or even just simple Haliburton high pick-and-roll.
OKC's versatility shows up in many different ways throughout the game. Everybody on the floor can both guard on the ball and help protect at the rim. Their defense never feels “upside down." They’re also elite in the passing lanes, averaging 20.8 deflections per game this postseason -- by far the most of any team. Against a Pacers team that loves to move the ball, that could spell danger if they aren't careful. Ball security will be absolutely critical.
So where can Indiana find an edge against an all time level defense?
One possible area is when OKC plays its double-big lineups with Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Hartenstein is one of the few Thunder rotation players who doesn’t switch regularly in pick-and-roll, so expect Indiana to target him with those actions and try to create advantages.
When OKC goes small -- with Chet plus four perimeter defenders -- the Pacers may look to leverage their size. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner have been punishing mismatches throughout the playoffs, and while OKC doesn’t have obvious weak links, there will be moments when smaller defenders are switched onto them.
Still, everything figures to be hard-earned.
Even when the Pacers create a small advantage, OKC has a bag full of solutions -- scram switching, pre-switching, peel switching -- all designed to snap the defense back into alignment. With the speed and intensity they play with, it can feel like they play with seven defenders at once.
I'll take one of Rick Carlie's greatest coaches efforts ever to find a way to crack a defense that quite frankly, has no weaknesses.
. . .
The Role Player Battleground
Myles Turner, Center
I'm not sure who was more foolish -- the Pacers for having Turner in trade talks for the entirety of this decade, or the rest of the league for never offering enough to pry him out of Indiana. I say this because Turner has been invaluable to this Finals run. He’s exactly the kind of big every team is dying to have: someone who can anchor a defense by protecting the rim on one end, while spacing the floor as a spot-up or pick-and-pop threat on the other.
Over the past two seasons, Turner has held opponents to 7.9% below their expected shooting at the rim as the nearest defender, and he’s knocked down over 40% of his wide-open catch-and-shoot threes. In this postseason, he’s averaging 2.3 blocks per game, and shooting 40.3% from deep on about four attempts per game
The Pacers desperately need Turner to play, perhaps, his best series yet. A series that will demand versatility on defense against a dynamic Thunder offense. A series that will require him to keep knocking down open threes to pull OKC’s help out of the paint. A series that will ask him to continue punishing mismatches inside, something he’s done sneakily well this postseason, just not against a defense as tenacious as this one.
Alex Caruso, Guard
The Thunder were +15.6 per 100 possessions with Caruso on the floor in the regular season. In the playoffs? That number has somehow gotten better. OKC is +17.2 in 728 postseason possessions with him out there.
He’s been this teams Swiss Army knife -- hounding everyone from Anthony Edwards to Nikola Jokic, a menacing off-ball defender, and filling gaps offensively with connective passing and timely shooting. We’ve seen it multiple times this postseason: a close game turns into a 15–2 Thunder run the moment Caruso checks in, fueled entirely by his defensive activity and offensive feel.
You can’t play him 40 minutes -- no human could maintain that level of anarchy for that long -- but in the 22–28 minutes he does play, Caruso has the ability to flip games on their head. And he does it all while holding the ball just 10.2% of the time he’s on the floor -- elite impact without needing touches. He'll be Indiana's worst nightmare, as he's been to so many teams before them.
Andrew Nembhard, Guard
If you've been reading me this season, you already know my affinity for Nembhard. He’s been a perfect backcourt complement to Tyrese Haliburton -- elite at the point of attack defensively and a reliable secondary playmaker on offense.
The Pacers are going to need both those traits in a big way. Nembhard will likely spend a good chunk of time guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he’ll also need to relieve some of the offensive pressure off Haliburton by shouldering a heavier creation load.
OKC has given Haliburton problems this season. His usage dropped from 21% in the regular season to just 12.5% in two games against the Thunder. They've done a great job picking him up higher up the floor, applying constant ball pressure, and mixing up coverages to keep him guessing.
I'm sure Indiana is confident, as Nembhard has been a highly effective offensive player this postseason -- knocking down 48% of his threes on spot-up chances, and fitting seamlessly into Indiana’s free-flowing, second-side actions. He’ll need to keep delivering across the board, including being prepared to carry a little extra weight when the moment calls for it.
Cason Wallace, Guard
Outside of Lu Dort, I imagine Wallace will be OKC’s other primary defender on Haliburton. The second-year guard out of Kentucky has quietly put together a monster defensive season, especially at the point of attack. Some within the Thunder organization would tell you that when it comes to strictly on-ball defense, Wallace might be the best they have among a roster full of All-Defensive-caliber players. His ability to spell Dort without any drop-off in intensity -- keeping the heat on Haliburton -- will be important.
If the Pacers opt to show some zone looks to disrupt SGA throughout the series, Wallace will likely get several open spot-up opportunities. Hitting those when his number is called will be a swing factor in the series. His shooting was a difference-maker in the Denver series (38% from three), but it’s also been shaky at times -- under 30% in both the first round and the conference finals.
The Fast Break Forum's NBA Finals Prediction
Here’s the bottom line: I respect the hell out of this Pacers team. I’ve been higher on them than most over the second half of the season. I’ve written about them multiple times down the stretch, picked them to make the conference finals before the postseason started, and had them beating the Knicks in six last round.
At the end of the day though, I just think this is a really tough draw for them.
If we’ve learned anything from the last two postseasons, it’s that 2 + 2 doesn’t always equal 4. In a league more talented than ever -- with teams that are so stylistically distinct -- the playoffs have become this giant game of rock-paper-scissors. I think Indiana got favorable matchups in Cleveland and New York despite the records. That’s not the case here.
I really struggle to see where consistent offense is going to come from for Indiana. OKC’s ability to switch everything is going to be critical. Even when the Pacers think they’ve created a mismatch with Siakam or Turner -- which will likely be their best shot at offense -- this Thunder’s team defense make it impossible to even throw entry passes, just ask the Denver Nuggets. Even if you get the catch, OKC's so good at scrambling behind double teams and negating any advantage you thought you had.
Turnovers may be the biggest swing factor in the series. Indiana, despite all the ball movement, has been fantastic at taking care of the ball -- but they haven’t faced anything close to this turnover-creating machine the Thunder are running. The Pacers have to keep the turnover differential manageable to have a real shot.
I also think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is set up for another big series -- similar to what he did against Minnesota. Like the Wolves, Indiana loves to pick up full-court and apply pressure. Shai's made them pay for that in five straight games just his unmatched ability to get defenders off balance. Minnesota tried mixing in zone like Denver did, but when you’ve spent an entire season playing one way, it’s tough to flip the switch. They got cooked when they tried it.
Indiana doesn’t have a ton of zone experience either, and the same thing could happen to them. I’ll be very interested to see how high Nembhard picks up SGA in Game 1.
The Pacers’ best chance is if it’s a terrible shooting series for the Thunder. OKC isn’t a great shooting team, and if they can limit SGA just enough, there’s a question of whether the other guys are good enough off the bounce to capitalize on advantages and run second-side offense when shots aren't falling.
That’s the one clear edge Indiana has in this series: they have more guys who are comfortable attacking from the second side or creating something out of nothing in late clock. Alongside Haliburton and Siakam, we’ve seen Nembhard, McConnell, and even Mathurin all take turns as primary creators during this playoff run and get quality looks.
Oklahoma City doesn’t have that same luxury. They’re extremely Shai and J-Dub-dependent. Chet will pull his weight, but he’s still early in his development, and his strength offensively could be tested by Indiana’s physicality.
Still, when it’s all said and done, I trust Oklahoma City to shut the water off on Indiana, generate just enough offense, and win this series -- in what I predict to be a fun, but ultimately short, Finals.
Oklahoma City in 5.
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