One Big Question for Each Second-Round Series

Daniel Waddleton

May 5, 2025

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Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs Indiana Pacers (4)

The Question: Can the Cavaliers stay elite from three as the pressure increases?

The Cavaliers finished the regular season with the leagues No. 1 offense both overall and in the half court. A few key factors fueled their jump from 16th last year (114.7 offensive rating) to 1st this year (121.0): Darius Garland’s return to health, Evan Mobley becoming more aggressive offensively, and Kenny Atkinson’s “everybody eats” offensive structure. However, a more underrated piece of the puzzle has been their three-point shooting.

Cleveland ranked second in both threes made per game (nearly 16) and three-point percentage (38.3%). Donavan Mitchell and Garland were elite at creating advantages, and the team had a wave of role players ready to capitalize -- Max Strus, Dean Wade, De’Andre Hunter, Sam Merrill -- all shooting over 37% from deep. But in the playoffs, the question is always whether those same guys can keep hitting shots once they’re in the pressure cooker. Through Game 1, the early answer is no: the Cavs shot just 9-of-38 from three (23.7%).

Now to be fair, some of that was Donovan Mitchell, who went 1-of-11 from deep while carrying an enormous offensive burden. He took 30 shots in total, many of them self-created, and that workload clearly took a toll. Getting Garland back from his toe injury should help balance the attack and get Mitchell off the joystick more. Yet, even beyond the stars, the Cavaliers need their role players to rediscover their rhythm because Indiana's offense feels made for this pressure cooker. Andrew Nembhard, for instance, is shooting 57.1% from three this postseason and looks completely unfazed by the moment. If Cleveland’s offense is going to get back to that elite level, that three-point volume and accuracy has to return.

My Series Prediction: I picked the Pacers in 7 before the playoffs, and I’m sticking with it.

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Boston Celtics (2) vs New York Knicks (3)

The Question: How is New York going to keep pace offensively against Boston’s defensive personnel?

We were all witnesses to Boston's domination in their regular season series, they swept the four matchups and posted a staggering 130.2 offensive rating in the process. That’s varsity-vs-JV level production. The Knicks tried everything: different pick-and-roll coverages, different matchups, different lineups. None of it worked. While New York needs Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor to generate offense, those two have also worn a massive target defensively in this matchup, leaving the Knicks hamstrung.

So the real question becomes: can New York generate enough offense to keep up? On the surface, you’d say yes -- they finished fifth in offensive rating this season. Yet this isn’t just any defense. This is a Boston group built to neutralize exactly what the Knicks want to do. Expect Jrue Holiday or Jayson Tatum to start on Towns, with Jaylen Brown on Jalen Brunson. Boston will switch those two-man actions, live with Towns post-ups across the board, avoiding being caught in rotation.

That’s a huge issue for New York because those Brunson-Towns actions aren’t just about scoring, they’re what grease the wheels of the entire offense. When they force extra help, it leads to catch-and-shoot looks, cutting lanes, and offensive rebounding chances. If Boston can keep things clean -- think to what they did against Dallas last year, neutralizing the advantages created with the Luka-Center pick-and-roll by switching with Tatum -- New York risks falling into Brunson doing his best Allen Iverson impression, which won't be efficient enough to topple a team this good.

The Knicks will want to involve Kristaps Porzingis in actions, but that likely means leaning heavily on Hart as a dribble handoff hub and screener. How much is too much Hart in primary actions? What does Bridges have in store offensively when not playing with a built in advantage? Is Brunson able to carry what could be a massive offensive load while also being put to work relentlessly on the defensive end? These are all major question marks for New York in a series where Boston enters knowing exactly what they want to do, and how to execute it.

Series Prediction: It'll take something very unexpected for a different outcome. Celtics in 5.

. . .

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Denver Nuggets (4)

The Question: Can Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray withstand the insane offensive burden they'll face against an all-time great defense?

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard that the Thunder have built one of the most statistically dominant defenses in NBA history. Their relative defensive rating of -6.9 ranks ranks 9th since 2000. They allowed just 107.4 points per 100 possessions -- first by a mile -- and forced turnovers on over 17% of opponent trips.

This defense features a rotation with four to five bonafide All-Defensive level candidates yet, somehow, they still feel like more than the sum of their parts. In a league where getting stops has never been harder, OKC might’ve crafted the blueprint for how to defend in the pace-and-space era.

Now, it’s up to Jokic and Murray -- a title-winning duo featuring a three-time MVP -- to crack the code. And unlike in years past, the help around them isn’t as reliable. Denver shot the least amount of three's in the league this season, even with Aaron Gordon turning in a career-best year from deep. Michael Porter Jr. should be a swing factor, but his inconsistent energy and defense have forced Denver to bench him at times. Their offseason losses have made the burden on these two as large as ever.

Meanwhile, OKC has been preparing for this, acquiring Isaiah Hartenstein last offseason to create a two-big look reminiscent of Minnesota’s Jokic-stifling lineups from last postseason. Throw in a rotation of elite perimeter stoppers -- Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace -- ready to hound Murray at every turn, and the margin for error shrinks even more.

Murray has a knack for rising to the occasion, and his 22.9 points on 58.2% true shooting last round gave us a glimpse of his return to form. But against this Thunder defense, he’ll need to be even better -- and more consistent -- if Denver has any hope of pulling the upset.

Nobody’s stopping Jokic because it’s impossible. However, can OKC follow the Minnesota blueprint from last year and at least wear him down over the course of a series, maybe ding his efficiency along the way? In four games against the Thunder this season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 11.5 assists -- absurd numbers by any measure -- but did so on just 57.5% true shooting, which is actually below his usual standards.

Series Prediction: I think Denver makes this a surprisingly fun series, but it’s asking a lot of what’s been an inconsistent Murray. Thunder in 6.

. . .

Minnesota Timberwolves (6) vs Golden State Warriors (7)

The Question: Can Golden State better execute what the Lakers tried to do?

While the Lakers and Warriors differ stylistically, the defensive approach Golden State will likely take against Anthony Edwards and the Wolves might look pretty familiar. The Lakers were without a traditional big man, so they attempted to instead to shrink the floor -- heavy gap help to cut off driving lanes, forcing Edwards into tough pull-ups or playmaking reads.

It didn't work. Even without a great three-point shooting series, Edwards picked them apart. His patience and poise were impressive compared to his previous postseason. He consistently made the right reads, even when they weren’t flashy, and punished the Lakers when gaps did appear, exposing the lack of rim protection.

This now becomes Golden State’s problem to solve. The Warriors, like L.A., don’t have your traditional 7-foot rim protector or lockdown wing defender who can attempt to negate Edwards straight up. They’ll likely also try to shrink the floor, probably play some zone, and use their superior collective defensive IQ to make life harder on Minnesota.

The big difference between last series and this one is Draymond Green. He’s the greatest small-ball five of this generation, far superior in that role than LeBron James or Dorian Finney-Smith. Draymond thrives at creating hesitation and indecision from ball handlers with his timing and anticipation on the backend of defenses. The Warriors may not be bigger than the Lakers, but they’re better equipped to play small effectively. Still, it will be on Ant to control the pace, read the floor, and continue punishing undersized defenses without forcing the issue.

Another core idea behind the Lakers’ small-ball approach was to force Rudy Gobert off the floor. The plan was to pull him away from the rim with five-out spacing, limit his defensive impact, and bet that he wouldn’t punish their lack of size on the other end. That gamble didn’t work. Not only did Gobert hold up well in space when switch-hunted by Luka Doncic and LeBron, he made the Lakers pay on the glass for going small. Especially in Game 5, where he racked up 27 points with nine offensive rebounds.

Golden State will likely lean on a similar approach. But outside of Steph Curry and Buddy Hield, the rest of their shooters are streaky. Even in small lineups, consistently pulling Gobert away from the paint won’t be easy. And unlike in past postseasons, he might finally be ready to punish small-ball lineups offensively. We’ll see if Golden State -- with more refined small-ball personnel -- can do any better.

One advantage for Golden State: while they may not have more shooting than the Lakers, they have more movement shooting. Tracking someone like Steph off the ball bends defenses, forces breakdowns, and can pull help defenders out of position without traditional five out spacing. The Warriors will need to lean into that chaos as much as possible if they’re going to win this series.

Series Prediction: The Wolves are deeper and extremely physical. Following a grueling seven-game battle with Houston, I think Minnesota will be the team to snap Golden State's bone. Wolves in 6.