How the New Playoff System Rewarded the Big Dogs

Daniel Waddleton

Jan 21, 2025

---

IN ANY OTHER college football season, the Ohio State Buckeyes losing outright as 21-point favorites to 6-5 Michigan would have been the end of their season. Under the two-team BCS system or the four-team CFP system, a loss like that is not something a team could survive. But this year was different.

With the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff, the postseason landscape changed dramatically. The system was pitched as a way to give underdogs a fair shot -- teams like the 2017 UCF Knights, who went 12-0 but were left out, or last season's 13-0 Florida State Seminoles, who missed the big dance due to a quarterback injury.

Ironically, though, the inaugural year of the expanded playoff didn’t elevate the underdogs. Instead, it ended up benefiting the bluebloods of the sport, the teams loaded with talent but needing extra time to find their stride.

Potential Cinderella's like Boise State, Indiana, and Arizona State were given opportunities they never would have received in the previous format. However, those teams went a combined 0-3 in the tournament, failing to make a splash. Meanwhile, Ohio State -- a team that in past years would have faced the same fate as '23 Georgia, '19 Alabama, '18 Georgia, '16 Penn State, '15 Ohio State, or '14 Baylor -- found new life under the expanded format.

Their regular-season mistake wasn’t a death penalty, as it had been for so many great teams before them. Instead, they were given a second chance, a chance to find the right rhythm, come together as a group, and make a championship run.

Ohio State was dubbed "the greatest team money could buy" in August, and by all accounts, they were perhaps the most talented team on paper since 2019 LSU. Yet all that talent was on the verge of turning into the most disappointing season in program history, after that dark loss at the hands of the Wolverines.

That loss, instead, became the catalyst that brought this group together. The team rallied around the media's calls to fire the coach and the growing narrative that this was the most disappointing Ohio State team ever. The defense, already excellent all season, became even more ferocious. And now, it was going to be paired with a high-powered offense finally ready to complement it.

Senior leader Jack Sawyer capping off the play of the year, sealing a victory over Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

The offense flipped its script, shifting from a ground-and-pound approach to relentlessly airing out the ball at every opportunity. They had finally figured out the best way to optimize their unit and it was a complete 180. They played like they had nothing to lose, like they were already dead.

*Regular Season (9 Games) - Points Per Game: 30.3 / Average Passing Yards: 229.3

Playoffs (4 Games) - Points Per Game: 36.3 / Average Passing Yards: 287.5

*Note: Non-conference games against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall excluded.

And the play that iced the championship game was a poetic ending to what had somehow become a dream season. Ryan Day, often criticized for being too conservative in big games, had appeared to shed that label during this postseason run. Yet, on a pivotal final drive, two straight quarterback runs for a net loss of one yard had Buckeye Nation experiencing nightmare flashbacks.

Then came 3rd-and-11. With the chance to keep playing it safe -- run the ball and force Notre Dame to march the length of the field with no timeouts -- Day went bold once again. The Buckeyes dialed up a 56-yard go route to the nation’s best wide receiver, sealing the national title in emphatic fashion. Game. Set. Match.

There was nothing fluky about this run either. Facing the No. 7, No. 1, No. 3, and No. 5 ranked teams in that order throughout the playoff, they dismantled every opponent to the tune of an 17.5 average margin of victory. Not a single team came within single digits of the champion Buckeyes. They only trailed for 6:05 out of the 240 minutes they played.

This team has a chance to produce the most NFL draft selections ever from a single season, and their two best players -- Caleb Downs and Jeremiah Smith -- are sure fire top-five picks in the next two drafts. We would never have seen this absurd collection of talent reach its full potential had we been stuck with last year’s playoff format.

All those seniors who could have been Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks last season -- Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau, Emeka Egbuka, Joshua Simon, and TreVeyon Henderson -- chose to stay one more year for one final attempt to climb the mountain. Instead of being remembered for a disastrous crash and burn, they became Ohio State heroes in an epic story of redemption.

So this begs a question you have to answer for yourself: Do you like the new format? Do you enjoy seeing elite teams get a chance at redemption, or do you prefer the old system, where the regular season carried more weight, and anything less than near perfection wasn’t going to be enough?

What’s no longer a question is whether this new format will produce a Cinderella. College football, by its very nature, will always favor the giants, no matter how the system is designed. Sure, it’s great that Boise State fans get to see their team in the playoffs, and the Arizona State vs. Texas David-and-Goliath matchup was a lot of fun. But in the end, this format only gives the elites more bites at the apple.

. . .

Future College Football Implications from This Season

First and foremost, the NCAA needs to address how playoff seeding is determined. The current system, where Oregon and Georgia won their conference championship games yet faced tougher paths than Penn State and Texas -- teams they defeated in those championships -- makes no sense. While it’s important for conference championship games to hold weight to ensure their continued relevance, allowing teams like Boise State and Arizona State to jump the field to high seeds (No. 3 and No. 4) as a result creates an unbalanced and flawed bracket. Finding a way to value these games without disrupting the entire tournament structure will be crucial.

In a 12-team format, the committee must also reassess how the seven at-large teams are selected. The focus should be on identifying the best teams, not just the most deserving by record, especially given the talent imbalances across conferences. Combined that with conferences now including as many as 18 teams, inflated records from weaker schedules need to be scrutinized to avoid situations where teams like SMU or Indiana make the tournament over more competitive groups like South Carolina or Ole Miss. This balancing act will be key to ensuring the quality of the expanded playoff system going forward.

What this season also might produce is a new era of college football. We talked earlier about how we saw a group of future Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks return to school for their senior season to take one final shot at reaching the pinnacle of the sport. In this new NIL era, where these level players are now well-compensated if they stay in school, the door is now open for similar scenarios to play out at other programs.

Penn State will be an interesting test case, with a sizable number of draft-eligible players who could choose to return for one more run at glory after falling just short this season. Ohio State has provided us with proof of concept. If they do and find similar success, this could spark a new trend across college football for years to come.