Cutting the Fat Off the Season Pt. 3 – The 14 Teams That Matter

Daniel Waddleton

Feb 20, 2024

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9. Indiana Pacers

Record: 30-23 (4th in East)

Offensive Rating: 10th

Defensive Rating: 21st

Net Rating: 16th

Starting Lineup: Haliburton – Nembhard – Mathurin – Siakam – Turner (+12.2 in 833 poss)

I think I'm higher on the Pacers than consensus. A team that once looked lottery-bound at 10-15 is now 30-23, and over the past two months, they’ve quietly been one of the better teams in the league. The catalyst? Their defense, which ranks eighth in the NBA since December 8.

Two players stand out in that transformation: Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard. Their on/off defensive impact has been massive, with Indiana allowing 14.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when Siakam is on the floor and 8.9 fewer with Nembhard -- ranking in the 100th and 97th percentile, respectively. Those two help make up one of the most aggressive ball-pressure team, as you won't see many teams pick up full court more then this group.

I wrote about their turnaround last week, but the focus here is their playoff viability. When Tyrese Haliburton is rolling, this offense is tough to guard. He leads a pace-and-space attack filled with shooting, his pick-and-pop chemistry with Myles Turner punishes non-switching defenses, and Nembhard has emerged as a key secondary ball-handler -- a release valve when teams play Haliburton high or force the ball out of his hands.

Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin give Indiana another offensive dimension, providing isolation scoring when the game slows down. That skill set is crucial in the playoffs, where half-court execution is super important.

Put it all together, and the Pacers rank sixth in pace, sixth in half-court points per game, third in isolation scoring, and tenth in offensive rating against top-eight defenses.

Moral of the story? This is not an easy team to guard, and recently have been hard to score on as well.

The big question is whether they have enough high-end talent to win four straight playoff rounds. They have a strong identity -- defensive ball pressure, up tempo offense, and versatile scoring -- but they lack an "unsolvable problem." Most true contenders have a player that forces opponents into two weeks of game-planning without a clear answer. There’s a reason for the long-held belief that you need a "superstar" to win a championship.

I really like this Indiana team. If they continue to get this Toronto-version Siakam, they can give anyone fits. But they feel more like a really fun postseason team that could hypothetically beat anyone rather than a true championship contender who can win four straight rounds.

. . .

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 29-24 (5th in East)

Offensive Rating: 13th

Defensive Rating: 11th

Net Rating: 11th

Starting Lineup: Lillard – Jackson Jr. – Kuzma – Giannis – Lopez (N/A)

Ranking a Giannis-Dame team as low as 10th in playoff viability might seem harsh, but I haven’t seen enough to justify a higher spot. Their one truly impressive moment this season, a dominant NBA Cup Final win over OKC, felt more like a matchup advantage than a true breakthrough.

Trading Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma improves size, athleticism, and regular-season reliability, but there is now a ridiculous creatin burden on Giannis and Dame. That wouldn’t be a problem if they had an elite defense behind them, but it hasn’t been that. This isn’t a team that can just outscore opponents in low-scoring playoff slugfests.

Their biggest postseason advantage is size. A Kuzma-Giannis-Lopez frontcourt will make rim scoring and offensive rebounding a nightmare for opponents. They should be excellent at limiting teams to one shot.

They also have two of the hardest players to gameplan for. According to Basketball Index, Dame leads the NBA in on-ball gravity, as no player has drawn more defensive attention with the ball. Giannis isn’t quite as unsolvable as Jokic or Luka in the post season, but he’s next in line. His rim pressure shatters defensive schemes.

Milwaukee pairs that rim pressure with elite spacing. Dame’s deep pull-up shooting stretches defenses, and they’re loaded with high-level catch-and-shoot threats like Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green. Even their fives can hit threes. They rank second in the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.5%.

But so far as I see it the issues outweigh the strengths. They lack two-way wings. Kuzma is the only plausible one, and he hasn’t played competitive basketball in years. Taurean Prince has been underwhelming, Trent Jr. and Green are undersized, and Andre Jackson Jr. falls into the Tony Allen category -- teams will let him take 15 threes a game if Milwaukee leaves him on the floor.

That lack of wings compounds their defensive limitations. Lopez is a one-trick pony, Portis is a no-trick pony, and while a Giannis-Kuzma frontcourt sounds viable in small-ball lineups, it collapses because Dame and the wings aren’t switchable. That forces them into a drop coverage scheme with Lopez -- one that struggles against teams with stretch bigs like Boston, New York, and Indiana.

The lack of defensive versatility is why they struggle against the best teams. They rank 25th in net rating against top-10 teams, brutal for a supposed contender.

Could they win the East? Sure. Their raw talent gives them a puncher’s chance, and the returns on Kuzma so far have been better than expected. But I remain skeptical.

. . .

11. Golden State Warriors

Record: 28-27 (10th in West)

Offensive Rating: 17th

Defensive Rating: 9th

Net Rating: 15th

Starting Lineup: I'll never be the same.

Though it’s only been four games, the addition of Jimmy Butler III has breathed new life into a Warriors season that once seemed destined for the lottery. Since his debut, Golden State has gone 3-1 with a +9.7 net rating, and it’s already clear how seamlessly he fits.

Butler’s contrasting skill set to the Warriors’ motion-heavy offense has ironically made them even harder to defend. His high basketball IQ allows him to blend in while adding dimensions they haven’t had since Kevin Durant in 2019. He brings a post/face up scoring presence, yet is just as effective passing out of the post, especially in the Warriors’ split action sets. His synergy with Steph Curry is already obvious -- they play off each other’s gravity to generate open looks.

Even when he isn’t directly scoring or assisting, his downhill presence warps defenses. In one sequence, Butler’s drive didn’t lead to a bucket or an assist, but it forced Draymond Green’s defender to help, setting up a quick handoff action for Curry where there's no defender left to contest.

Another key impact: non-Steph minutes. Since Durant’s departure, the Warriors have lacked a floor raising offensive player aside from Curry. Butler changes that. He can take over offensive responsibilities for stretches, keeping the team afloat when Curry rests. His presence also allows more minutes of Curry and Green together, since Golden State no longer has to worry about playmaking in non-Curry lineups.

A major part of Butler’s effectiveness as a driver is his ability to draw fouls. His quick first step helps him gain angles, and once he’s in the paint, his signature jump stop puts defenders off balance. From there, he can either pull up for a short two or unleash his lethal pump fake -- which feels like it works 90% of the time -- to get defenders in the air. You know how that story ends.

Golden State has perennially ranked in the bottom third of the league in free throws, but since acquiring Butler, they’ve jumped to second in the league over this stretch. This is an element the Steve Kerr-era Warriors have never had, and beyond just easy points, it could be crucial in preserving the legs of aging stars like Curry and Green over the course of a game.

Defensively, Butler has also been a net positive. While he’s no longer the lockdown wing stopper he once was, he still plays hard, and has an elite nose for the ball. Unlike many high-usage offensive players, he’s constantly disrupting passing lanes, diving for loose balls, and secures key rebounds.

The real question is whether their role players can provide enough for Curry, Butler, and Draymond to take them to the promised land. There’s reason for optimism -- Butler’s presence so far has allowed everyone else to settle into more defined and comfortable roles -- but that remains to be seen in a playoff setting. Another concern is how they’ll handle a team like Denver or Dallas, where pure size could overwhelm a Warriors squad that will rely on Draymond at center in their best lineups.

I have this team lower for now simply due to the small sample size, but make no mistake, I’m high on their potential. I'll have a very close eye on them during the home stretch.

. . .

12. Dallas Mavericks

Record: 30-26 (8th in West)

Offensive Rating: 7th

Defensive Rating: 14th

Net Rating: 10th

Starting Lineup: Irving – Thompson – Washington – Davis – Gafford (+54.5 in 60 poss)

The Luka trade is DEFCON 1 in the city of Dallas, and the teams championship ceiling is likely gone post trade.

This team was built perfectly around Luka: an elite secondary creator who thrived off the ball, a big-man platoon that provided a vertical lob threat on offense and rim protection on defense, and an ideal modern four in P.J. Washington having a breakout season. Now, that mold is gone.

But this team’s defense is going to be unbelievable, and it’s plausible they have enough offense to make winning multiple playoff series a real possibility.

A frontcourt of Anthony Davis and either Daniel Gafford or especially Derrick Lively II is a nightmare matchup. Davis is versatile enough to guard forwards but can also operate as a weakside rim protector and rebounder when Gafford or Lively gets pulled away from the basket.

Max Christie now takes over as the primary point-of-attack defender, and in both Los Angeles and his short stint in Dallas, he’s shown the potential to be the kind of prototypical 3&D wing every contender needs. Kyrie Irving isn’t an elite defender, but he competes and has ability, and they can rotate through Washington, Naji Marshall, and even Dante Exum to handle wing assignments.

The real question is whether they’ll have enough shot creation and, more importantly, playmaking to win multiple series. Irving and Davis are capable of big scoring nights, but neither is always consistent. Davis has been matchup-dependent throughout his career, and Irving can fade in and out of games. Both will need to be consistent killers for this team to have a real shot.

My biggest red flag is the roster lacks a natural playmaker, making the Doncic trade even more puzzling. What happens to guys like Gafford and Lively on offense without Luka? It’s also unlikely they generate the same open looks for perimeter shooters without his gravity and passing ability. I envision offense being a struggle for stretches, which is why they land at 12 on my list.

That said, I’m not foolish enough to count them out entirely. A locked-in Anthony Davis is what opposing teams playoff nightmares are made of, and there’s still plenty of talent here, even if the roster suddenly makes less sense without Doncic.

. . .

13. Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 31-23 (6th in West)

Offensive Rating: 19th 

Defensive Rating: 2nd  

Net Rating: 9th

Starting Lineup: Harden – Powell – Jones Jr. – Leonard – Zubac (+25.7 in 374 poss)

If Oklahoma City didn’t have one of the greatest defenses in NBA history, the Clippers would be getting a lot more attention. Their defense has been elite, to the point where even James Harden is fully engaged. They rank second in defensive rating against top-eight offenses, proving they can stifle even the best.

One of the best bargain signings of the offseason, Kris Dunn has emerged as a defensive ace at the point of attack. His ability to contain drivers, navigate screens, and disrupt passing lanes has been invaluable. Ivica Zubac also deserves a ton of credit for exceeding expectations on both ends. Since Harden’s arrival last season, Zubac has grown as an offensive player—he’s an effective short-roll scorer and playmaker, ranking sixth in post-up points per game.

Defensively, he’s taken an even bigger leap. He ranks in the 98th percentile in rim protection value, and while his block numbers aren’t flashy, the advanced metrics paint him as an elite rim deterrent. The Clippers rank 24th in opponent field goal percentage at the rim, largely due to his presence. He’s also a strong post defender and relentless rebounder, anchoring their elite defense.

If Kawhi Leonard could turn back the clock even two seasons, I’d have this team ranked higher. Their defense is playoff-ready, and Harden -- despite his age and declining efficiency -- is still one of the league’s best playmakers, keeping their offense afloat. Norman Powell also deserves credit, having the best shot-making season of his career, averaging 24 points per game on 63.3% true shooting. He’s still not much of a playmaker, but that’s not his role, he just needs to get buckets efficiently.

The addition of Ben Simmons is intriguing. If healthy, he adds transition playmaking, short-roll facilitation, and small-ball five versatility in a switch-everything defensive scheme. But ultimately, everything comes down to Kawhi.

A healthy Leonard changes everything. The Clippers don’t need him to be peak Kawhi, they just need 75-80% of that version, someone who can carry the offense when Harden is either off the floor or struggling (which we know can happen in the postseason). At his best, Kawhi was one of the greatest isolation scorers of this generation, and while they don’t need that level of dominance, they need him to be a reliable, high-usage offensive player.

Against top-eight defenses, the Clippers’ offensive rating drops to 26th in the league. Without a true go-to scorer on the wing, their half-court offense can stagnate, especially in playoff settings where defenses lock in.

I really like this team, but I had to rank them lower than I wanted simply because I haven’t seen enough from Kawhi to believe he can be the offensive difference-maker they need. If he can get there, this team has real threat potential. If not, they may lack the offensive punch to keep up with the very best.

. . .

14. Houston Rockets

Record: 34-21 (4th in West)

Offensive Rating: 12th

Defensive Rating: 4th

Net Rating: 7th

Starting Lineup: VanVleet – Green – Brooks – Smith Jr. – Sengun (+8.4 in 857 poss)

Houston has been a blast to watch this season, and I’ve written a full feature on their turnaround that I’d love for you to check out. They’ll be a headache for any team in a playoff series with their athleticism and defensive playmaking, but the reality is they’re highly unlikely to win a series with their current offensive limitations.

Despite ranking 12th in offensive rating, Houston is just 25th in half-court offense -- a glaring red flag for the postseason. Their attack thrives in transition, ranking third in fast-break points, fueled by their defense and ability to force turnovers. But when the game slows down in the playoffs and transition chances shrink, their half-court struggles could be their undoing.

Shot efficiency is a major concern. They rank 28th in effective field goal percentage, meaning they don’t convert at a high level. Their league-best offensive rebounding percentage helps, but in a playoff setting, that margin is likely to shrink against elite competition.

The biggest issue is a lack of a proven lead creator. Fred VanVleet is a stable presence but has been inconsistent, especially in clutch time. He’s better suited as a secondary ball handler, but Houston doesn't have the luxury. Having Jalen Green as your leading scorer with just a 54.7% true shooting is far from ideal.

Alperen Sengun is a complete playoff unknown, and it’s unclear how his game will translate. Think back to what Golden State did to Domantas Sabonis in 2023, that’s likely the the starting blueprint for defending Sengun in a series. There’s also the question of whether teams will expose his defensive limitations over a two-week stretch. He’s improved, but Houston’s system is designed to protect him. Can a smart coach crack that? Possibly.

On any given night, Houston can overwhelm teams with their energy and athleticism, but that advantage shrinks in the playoffs when veteran teams match their intensity and force them into half-court execution.

They’ve been an NBA League Pass darling, and this won’t be the last postseason we hear from the “terror twins” of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Yet when it comes to real postseason viability, they simply don’t have the offensive firepower to make a deep run -- or likely any run at all.