2025 Playoffs First-Round Extravaganza!

Daniel Waddleton

April 19th, 2025

THIS POSTSEASON IS shaping up to be one of the best of my lifetime. We’ve got crème de la crème contenders at the top with worthy challengers right behind them, creating potential heavyweight battles scattered all over the bracket. It’s as star-studded a field as I can remember in recent memory.

Unlike last year, most of the league’s top teams are healthy and ready to go. I truly believe this field is wide open, anyone can get knocked off, nobody’s safe. Styles make fights, and that’s never going to hold more true than it will over the next two months.

Let’s go series by series and preview all the fun we’re in for in Round 1. I’ll wrap things up with my official postseason bracket. This is going to be a long one, so if you're only looking to preview one or two series, I made it easy for you.

Skip to a Series

Cleveland vs Miami

Boston vs Orlando

New York vs Detroit

Indiana vs Milwaukee

Oklahoma City vs Memphis

Houston vs Golden State

Los Angeles vs Minnesota

Denver vs Los Angeles

Heavyweight Slugfests

Denver Nuggets (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Introducing the Series

Probably the best of the first-round matchups, Nuggets-Clippers feels like a Western Conference Finals taking place in April. There’s history here too. Who could forget the Clippers’ infamous bubble collapse, when Denver came back from a 3–1 deficit and Paul George earned the nickname “Pandemic P” after going 4-for-16 in Game 7 -- including that brutal side-of-the-backboard miss from the corner?

There’s also the 2021 trade deadline, when Denver brought in Aaron Gordon specifically to be the “Kawhi stopper.” That plan got derailed when Jamal Murray tore his ACL just two weeks later. Now, we finally get to see that plan come to life.

The teams split the season series 2–2, but Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in any of those games, and the last matchup was all the way back on January 8th. Needless to say, not much to take away.

The Clippers have been one of the more impressive teams this season, staying afloat without Kawhi early on riding a third-ranked defense behind defensive coordinator Jeff Van Gundy's mastery. Kawhi returned, and now over their last 25 games, they’ve gone 19–6 with a 121.4 offensive rating (2nd in the NBA during that stretch), giving them a dangerous two-way profile.

Denver, meanwhile, stumbled to the finish line -- capped off by the shocking firing of Michael Malone, the winningest coach in franchise history, with just THREE GAMES left in the season. Malone's voice was clearly no longer resonating within the locker room, and ownerships decided this season was going nowhere without a change.

Yet with all the turmoil, when you have the best player in the world with Nikola Jokic (29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG), you have a chance in any series.

Nuggets Advantage

It’s simple: they have Jokic. No one in the league can neutralize him, and when Denver’s offense is humming -- which it usually is -- they’re nearly impossible to stop. Now with Aaron Gordon shooting 43.6% from three this season, there’s not even a weak link to funnel the ball toward.

The Clippers also rely heavily on drop coverage in pick-and-roll, and Jokic has frying that coverage on pick-and-pops this season. We may see an adjustment from L.A. as the series progresses if it gets out of hand.

Denver should also be able to push the pace -- they rank 2nd in fastbreak points, while the Clippers are just 20th in transition defense. Expect Denver to run whenever possible to avoid facing L.A.’s set halfcourt defense.

And if there’s a player built in a lab to guard Kawhi in isolation, it might be Aaron Gordon. Kawhi looks to be in peak form, but Denver will at least to start live with the results of his midrange shots against a very good defender in Gordon.

Clippers Advantage

Denver’s defensive scheme is going to be tested. Jokic isn’t a switchable big, and the Nuggets typically have him hedge ball screens while the weakside defender tags the roller and the defense scrambles behind the play. The Clippers are built to take advantage of that.

James Harden will draw extra attention in pick-and-rolls with Zubac, and L.A. has plenty of second-side threats -- Leonard, Powell, Bogdanovic -- who can knockdown three's or make plays once the defense is rotating.

Norman Powell, in particular, is worth highlighting. He’s not just an elite catch-and-shoot guy, he’s one of the best in the league at attacking closeouts and getting to the rim. Expect Zubac to grab his fare share of offensive rebounds, especially with Denver frequently in rotation and Jokic or Gordon pulled away from the basket.

On the other end, the Clippers have the length and physicality to really bother Jamal Murray. Between Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr., Murray will need to be at his absolute best. I’m not sure we’ve seen enough consistent offensive production from him this season to feel confident he’ll win that matchup -- especially against a guy like Dunn, who’s played at an All-Defensive level.

X-Factor

How much can Denver afford to play guys like Russell Westbrook and Peyton Watson? Those are players the Clippers will intentionally leave open and force to make shots and decisions under pressure.

Watson, specifically, brings a lot of value defensively. He gives Denver much-needed perimeter defense and weakside rim protection when they’re scrambling. But can he stay on the floor without becoming an offensive liability? Can he knock down open looks and make plays against a tilted defense? If not, the Clippers will be more than happy to ignore him.

My Prediction

I hate picking against Jokic. I’ve picked Denver to win the Finals each of the past two postseasons, and I still believe in that nearly unstoppable offense. But this just feels like a bad matchup.

The Clippers are much deeper than the Nuggets, and the amount of minutes Denver’s starters will have to play -- even by playoff standards -- could be eye-opening. L.A. may not be able to completely stop Denver’s offense, but much like Minnesota last year, they have the physicality and depth to wear them down over the course of a long series.

With Kawhi back, Harden playing his best ball of the season, and Zubac holding strong in the middle, the Clippers have the firepower and structure to make things difficult for Denver on both ends.

Clippers in 7.

Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (6)

Introducing the Series

These two teams didn’t meet in last year’s playoffs, yet this still feels like a rematch. For a second straight postseason, the Wolves will have to try to solve the Luka Doncic puzzle. We all remember Luka’s loud game-winner over Rudy Gobert in Game 2 of that series, but he did damage against every Wolves defender, finishing with 32.4 points and 8.2 assists per game on 62.7% true shooting.

Now the deck has been shuffled. Luka now plays alongside LeBron James and Austin Reaves, and spends much of his time on the floor without a vertical lob threat, which was a key part of his previous setup in Dallas. Minnesota no longer has Kyle Anderson -- who had some solid reps guarding Luka -- or Karl-Anthony Towns, who frankly struggled on both ends in that Dallas series.

This series shapes up to be a really compelling chess match, maybe the most so of any series. The teams split the season series, but only one of those games featured Luka playing for the Lakers in a 111–102 win. That night, Minnesota was missing its starting frontcourt of Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. 

Lakers Advantage

The most obvious edge for the Lakers is that they might be the one team in the West that won’t be fazed by Minnesota’s relentless physicality and ball pressure, or at least not to the extent other teams might be. In that sense, I imagine the Wolves are frustrated to have drawn this matchup given that's their strength.

Luka and LeBron are these oversized creators who move defenders around with ease. Players like Jaden McDaniels or Nickeil Alexander-Walker, while impactful, just won’t have the same effect on them as they would against players like Devin Booker or Jamal Murray -- like we saw last postseason.

The Lakers will also be able to space Minnesota out, pulling Gobert away from the rim and minimizing his impact defensively. We’ve already seen a lot of Dorian Finney-Smith or Rui Hachimura at the five for L.A., and I’d expect them to keep leaning into that. Someone like Mike Conley -- a vital connector and the Wolves’ best passer -- becomes a target in this series. Luka or LeBron will relentlessly hunt that matchup.

Defensively, the Lakers have shown an ability to shrink the floor against top downhill threats like Anthony Edwards. Even without a true rim protector (outside of Jaxson Hayes), they use their length of the wings to show help and then recover well enough to keep guys away from the basket entirely.

Expect a lot of peel switching from the Lakers -- if Edwards beats his man downhill, the help defender picks him up, and the original defender rotates out to the open man. L.A. has the personnel to execute it playing all wings most of the game.

The Lakers also have a clear edge in late-game execution. Luka and LeBron are two of the best offensive players and decision makers in NBA history, known for being surgical late in games. The Wolves, meanwhile, will be putting the ball in the hands of Ant and Randle -- talented players, but ones who have struggled with decision-making under pressure, especially when defenses send blitzes or double teams.

Timberwolves Advantage

Minnesota’s biggest advantage is their flexibility, as they have a lot of different cards to play. This is one of the deepest teams in the playoff field. I expect to see them play all of them in this series.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try a creative starting alignment: Randle on Luka, McDaniels on Hayes, and Gobert on Rui. That would allow them to switch Luka-Hayes pick-and-rolls and let Gobert roam off Rui, living with the results from three. If the Lakers wanted to get Gobert in the action to attack drop coverage instead of switching, they would have to use Rui as the screener.

If they decide Gobert can’t be effective enough in this series, they could go smaller with Naz Reid, try to space the Lakers out, and force guys like Luka and Reaves to defend in isolation.

They can lean offense off the bench with DiVincenzo, they can lean defense with Alexander-Walker and Jaylen Clark. The Lakers will have to adjust to things on the fly, not knowing what direction Minnesota might go.

X-Factor

How valuable can Gobert remain when the Lakers go five-out and pull him away from the basket?

I think the whole “Gobert gets played off the floor” narrative is overstated. He doesn’t become a defensive liability -- he's actually one of the better switch big men in the league -- he just loses some of his value when he’s not able to anchor the paint. The real issue is on offense: Gobert can’t consistently punish mismatches, and while he’s decent on the offensive glass, he doesn’t dominate there either.

This is why Gobert isn’t as effective against small-ball teams — not because he can’t guard in space, but because teams can reduce his defensive impact by spacing him out and he can’t make them pay on the other end. If Gobert can find ways to contribute offensively against smaller lineups, that would be a huge swing factor for Minnesota.

My Prediction

I’ve talked about the Wolves as my dark horse title pick all second half of the season, so it’s disappointing they ended up with what might be their worst possible first-round matchup.

I just don’t see a world where the Lakers don’t out-execute the Wolves offensively. Having Austin Reaves as your third creator is a crazy luxury. I don’t think Gobert can punish the Lakers for going small and pulling him away from the rim. Luka won’t have to work defensively unless the Wolves commit to running offense through Jaden McDaniels.

And L.A. theoretically has good matchups for Edwards and Randle as LeBron and DFS can take those assignments. In most lineups, the Lakers will be able to switch across the board and shrink the floor when Edwards drives.

Lakers in 5.

Rivals Old/New Meet Again

Houston Rockets (2) vs Golden State Warriors (7)

Introducing the Series

The rivalry that defined the late 2010s Western Conference is back. Only now, it looks a little different.

Once a clash of basketball philosophies -- heliocentric ball vs. heavy ball movement -- Warriors-Rockets now takes the shape of the new kids on the block vs. the old guard. None of the players from those James Harden-era Rockets teams remain, but the energy between these franchises is alive and well.

We saw a glimpse of that in their most recent matchup. Golden State and Houston faced off a rare five times this season (thanks to an In-Season Tournament game), with the Warriors winning the series 3–2. However, the only game that featured Jimmy Butler was the final one which Houston won, thanks to exceptional team defense and standout individual work from Amen Thompson, who helped hold Stephen Curry to a season-low three points.

Ime Udoka made it a point to mention in his postgame press conference that the Warriors were "crying" for the majority of the game. Direct quote.

Both teams have been surging down the stretch. The Warriors caught fire after acquiring Butler, finishing the season on a 23–8 run and looking like a completely different team, and much more serious contender. The Rockets, meanwhile, found their groove again late, winning 15 of their last 20 games to lock up the No. 2 seed in a loaded West.

Expect a chippy but fun series -- one that just might reignite a once-great rivalry.

Rockets Advantage

Houston’s biggest advantage in this series is simply possessions. The Rockets led the league in offensive rebound rate at 36.3%, and they’ve leaned into that strength even more over the last month by running double-big lineups featuring both Alperen Senuün and Steven Adams.

In 321 possessions with that combo, they’ve posted a +30.0 net rating, grabbing a ridiculous 50.3% of their own misses. These lineups often include other aggressive rebounders like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, or Jabari Smith Jr., giving Houston a serious edge on the glass -- especially against a Warriors team likely to play small with Draymond Green at the five for long stretches.

Golden State also has a long-standing issue with turnovers, sort of the achilles heel of the Steve Kerr era. That’s dangerous against a Houston team that ranks fifth in defensive rating and has defensive playmakers all over the floor. The Rockets want to play in transition. While they struggle in the halfcourt with just 0.97 points per play (25th), they average 17 fast break points per game, seventh in the league. I would imagine Houston believes they can create these fast break opportunities through turnovers in this series.

This Houston team just plays on a string defensively. They have a variety of strong matchups for Steph and Butler -- primary but not executively Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks -- but what makes the system really work is the complementary defenders: VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason all bringing switchability, instincts, and intensity. Sengun has taken a real step forward defensively this year, posting the best rim protection metrics of his career. And those Sengun-Adams lineups? Opponents are only attempting 21.4% of their shots at the rim when both are on the floor, it's a rim deterrence type of lineup.

They’re going to be super physical with Golden State. They’re bigger, longer, and they’ll absolutely test the limits of how many fouls officials are truly willing to call throughout a game. As the saying goes: “If we foul every play, they can’t call them all."

Warriors Advantage

Golden State’s advantage is simple: in the halfcourt their offense is better equipped to score against Houston than Houston is to score against them.

Everyone knows what Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler can do in the postseason offensively. But what might surprise people is that since acquiring Butler, the Warriors have had the best defensive rating in basketball. Despite being slightly undersized, this defense has been unbelievable. Butler’s knack for the ball, even as a superstar, is almost inspiring -- and he’s not alone. Brandon Podziemski, Gary Payton II, and of course Draymond all have this same trait.

To keep it simple, lineups featuring both Butler and Draymond have a 107.2 defensive rating and force turnovers on over 19% of opponent possessions. Even more impressive, they’re doing all of this without fouling -- opponents are making only 15 free throws per 100 possessions in those lineups.

Houston already struggles in the halfcourt and relies heavily on second-chance points. If Golden State can hold their own on the glass, Houston’s offense could stall out.

On the other end, as good as Houston's defense is, the Warriors still have more shot creation and versatility. If the Rockets stick with double-big lineups, they may struggle to cover the perimeter and keep up with all the Warriors' off-ball screening and motion -- especially when Steph is involved. And while Houston has great individual defenders, Butler is still going to get his, especially when attacking tilted defenses that lose track of assignments over time.

If the Warriors can limit turnovers and hold their own on the boards, they’ll have the halfcourt edge, and that might be enough to take the series.

X-Factor

Can Jalen Green rise to the occasion in the postseason? We talked about halfcourt offense potentially being a weakness for Houston in this series, but he has the shot-making ability to change that, especially late in games.

That’s exactly when things have gotten tricky for Green. Head coach Ime Udoka has benched his 23-year-old leading scorer multiple times in crunch time in favor of better defensive options. And with a 54.8% true shooting percentage and inconsistent defensive effort, it’s understandable. But Houston’s ceiling depends on Green being out there when it matters. They need his scoring punch.

He both needs to do the little things to earn Udoka's trust throughout the series, or just make enough shots throughout each contest that his coach has no choice but to keep him out there.

One other sneaky X-Factor I identify is role player three-point shooting. Both teams will rely on streaky shooters that play big minutes for them, and that the other side is likely to concede shots to. This series could realistically come down to something as simple as:

“Podziemski and Payton II hit more timely threes than Brooks and Eason did.”

My Prediction

I understand how dangerous it is to pick against three proven playoff killers in Curry, Butler, and Draymond. Especially against a young Rockets team that has real concerns on offense.

Yet, there’s something about this Houston squad that their inability to feel fear that draws me toward them.

Even if their halfcourt offense struggles, they’ll generate extra possessions through offensive rebounds and turnovers — and sometimes that’s all it takes. A couple of three-point flurries can keep their offense afloat. Defensively, they’re elite. They can genuinely choke the life out of Golden State if they can grind this series down and make physicality the story of the series.

It might be crazy, but I’m rolling with the young guns. I think Houston’s possession advantage and physicality will be just enough to get them through -- backed by an elite defense that supports some shaky but timely offense.

Rockets in 6.

Indiana Pacers (4) vs Milwaukee Bucks (5)

Introducing the Series

Rockets-Warriors might have history, but Bucks-Pacers has the real tension right now.

This rivalry has been building for over a year, ever since Tyrese Haliburton buried a dagger three over Brook Lopez in last year’s In-Season Tournament and hit Damian Lillard’s own “Dame Time” celebration. That set the tone.

The Pacers dominated the Bucks last season, winning four of five in the regular season, then eliminating them in six games in the first round. Giannis was sidelined, sure, but Indiana made sure Milwaukee knew they were getting their butt's handed to them. Trash talk, celebrations, constant chirping, the Pacers leaned into it every step of the way.

Milwaukee got some revenge this year, taking the season series 3–1. But Indiana still got their shot in: in the lone win, Haliburton hit a wild and-one three over Giannis to take the lead with 3.1 seconds left… and brought back the “Dame Time” celebration.

These two teams don’t like each other. Now they’ve got seven more games to settle it.

Indiana enters the series as one of the hottest teams in the league since the calendar flipped to 2025. They’ve gone 34–14, with a +5.3 net rating -- sixth best in the NBA over that span.

Milwaukee on the other hand, has had the definition of a rollercoaster season -- full of peaks and valleys. However, they ended on a high note, winning their final eight games to surge back into the fifth seed and earn a second straight playoff date with Indiana.

The biggest question mark heading into the series is the health of Damian Lillard, who has been out since March 18 with deep vein thrombosis (DVT), or a blood clot in his right calf. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Thursday that Lillard is expected to return at some point during the series, but the timing -- and how close to full strength he looks -- will be a huge factor.

Pacers Advantage

Even in the games Milwaukee won this season, Indiana rarely struggled to generate the shots they wanted, it was just a matter of making them.

The Pacers pick up the tempo noticeably against the Bucks, with their pace jumping from 100.76 across the season to 103.38 in head-to-head matchups. Milwaukee’s older, slower roster isn’t built to keep up, and it led to frequent mistakes in transition throughout their meetings.

Indiana also has the ability to spread Milwaukee out and neutralize Brook Lopez, who started all 82 games at center. If the Bucks stick with traditional drop coverage, the Pacers can pick-and-pop them to death with Myles Turner. If they switch, Haliburton will isolate Lopez, draw help at the rim, and kick to open shooters on the perimeter.

Milwaukee might be forced to change their base lineups -- playing more minutes with someone like Jericho Sims, a more mobile big who can switch onto Haliburton. But that hurts their offense, since Sims can’t stretch the floor like Lopez. They may also turn to Bobby Portis, who is a big downgrade compared to Lopez in rim protection, but is at least more switchable and less of a target on the perimeter.

Indiana can also attack Milwaukee’s smaller guards defensively. The Bucks will play guys like Damian Lillard, Ryan Rollins, and A.J. Green, and Indiana will look to hunt switches to get Pascal Siakam isolated on them in post-up's, either to score inside or draw doubles and force Milwaukee into rotation.

This will likely push Milwaukee into heavier minutes for guys like Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma, who are more switchable but bring less on offense and aren’t elite point-of-attack defenders. This is all a long winded way of saying: Milwaukee doesn’t have really any true two-way wings, and Indiana is well-equipped to exploit that.

Defensively, Indiana is much more built for a playoff setting. Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Siakam have all had strong defensive seasons, and Myles Turner remains a reliable rim protector, but with more switch ability then a Lopez on the other side.

It's also a luxury having a guy like Nembhard who will gladly take the challenge of picking up Lillard 94 feet, making him work every possession -- especially important with Milwaukee lacking secondary ball handlers behind Dame.

Bucks Advantage

Like Denver, Milwaukee is outmatched in a lot of areas on paper. However, when you have a player as dominant as Giannis, that can change the entire equation.

Giannis finished the season averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 60% shooting. His one in a generation rim pressure blows up preferred defensive schemes, breaks your typical help principles, and forces you to abandon everything else in order to stop this train.

Pair him with Damian Lillard (24.9 PPG, 7.1 APG) -- who demands constant attention on the perimeter -- along with a floor-spacing supporting cast, Milwaukee will put up points in this series. The Bucks finished first in third point percentage this season at 39.3% this season. If they get open looks, they are going to cash in.

Giannis averaged 11.8 assists per game in April, he's in the midst of his best playmaking stretch of his career. It’ll take more than just his scoring for Milwaukee to elevate over Indiana -- he’ll need to keep creating advantages and trusting his teammates to finish plays.

In my opinion, Milwaukee’s two biggest weaknesses are their lack of true two-way wings -- which we mentioned earlier -- and their shortage of shot creators outside of Dame and Giannis.

In Dame’s absence, we’ve seen players like Kevin Porter Jr. and Bobby Portis become really important. They can get their own offense, which Milwaukee will absolutely need in this series. But the key will be finding the right balance of attacking aggressively, without killing the ball movement that keeps the Bucks’ offense flowing.

X-Factor

Indiana is going to force Milwaukee out of its comfort zone -- adjusting matchups, changing coverages, tweaking rotations. And the Bucks coach Doc Rivers isn’t exactly known for elite in-series adjustments over his coaching career. Milwaukee will desperately need him to be flexible over the next two weeks.

He’ll have to find lineups that work -- even if it means scrapping the original game plan -- and figure out how to keep Milwaukee’s defense from constantly scrambling against Indiana’s high-octane attack, without totally sacrificing offense on the other end.

Another sneaky X-factor is Giannis’ free throw shooting. He’s getting to the line 10.6 times per game this season, but he's shooting just 61.7%. Indiana will almost certainly dare him to beat them from the line whenever he’s near the rim by hacking him. Games could swing entirely based on how well he can hit his free throws.

Prediction

Even though Milwaukee has the best player in the series, I think the overall problems Indiana can create -- and sustain -- outweigh what Milwaukee can throw at them.

Outside of Giannis and Dame, there isn’t much true shot creation on this Bucks roster. Indiana’s defense should be able to at least make Milwaukee’s stars work, while the Pacers have far more options offensively out of their stars.

It’s not just Haliburton and Turner in the two-man game or Siakam in isolation. Andrew Nembhard in the starting group, along with T.J. McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin off the bench, can all create offense within the flow of the system. Milwaukee has players like Bobby Portis who can get their own shot, but often it comes at the cost of ball movement and overall rhythm.

I'd anticipate Homecourt playing a big role as well, of course favoring Indiana as the higher seed.

Both teams finished 20–20 on the road, making them well over .500 at home. I could see this series going 2-2-1-1-1, with the home team winning every game, and Indiana surviving in a Game 7 at home.

At the end of the day, I just trust Indiana to generate better looks more consistently over the course of the series. In the playoffs, that’s often the safest bet you can make.

Pacers in 7.

Inferior Talent Attempts To Pull An Upset

New York Knicks (3) vs Detroit Pistons (6)

Introducing the Series

The Detroit Pistons have the chance to win their first playoff game in 17 years, with their last victory coming on May 26, 2008. To do that, they’ll have to knock off a Knicks team that on paper, looks like the clear favorite. However, this isn’t fantasy basketball, and Detroit has had real success against New York this season, winning three of four matchups, including one just last week on April 10.

Of course, regular season matchups always require some context -- lineups change, injuries happen -- but make no mistake: Detroit won’t fear the Knicks. This is a gritty, physical team that’s embraced the spirit of the former "Bad Boys" era of Pistons basketball.

Detroit may have been the league’s biggest surprise this year, improving their win total by 30 games thanks to a smart offseason that brought in real veteran leadership to complement their young core. And while the roster is young, it doesn’t feel that way. Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart, and Ron Holland bring an edge and defensive toughness every night, while Cade Cunningham has taken a leap -- averaging 25.7 points (8th in the NBA), 6.1 rebounds, and 9.2 assists (3rd) on a career-best 55.9% true shooting. There’s still room for growth, but he looks ready for his first playoff run.

The Knicks, meanwhile, entered the season with the second-best odds to win the Finals behind only Boston. Yet despite a solid 51-win campaign and a third-place finish in the East, the year has felt slightly underwhelming. Their defense dropped to 13th in the league, and they struggled to compete with the NBA’s elite in the regular season. Still, this is an hyper talented team -- with five players averaging over 13 points per game -- and the hope is that talent will rise to the moment now that the games truly matter.

The Pistons may not be title contenders yet, but they’re a legit, tough basketball team that won’t back down. Expect a chippy, hard-fought series with close games, playoff intensity, and plenty of fireworks.

Knicks Advantage

First and foremost, the Knicks are the more talented team. Their entire starting five is made up of players capable of making an All-Star team, and they have impactful depth pieces like Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride off the bench.

The offense is led by Jalen Brunson, one of the best pure shot-makers in the NBA, averaging 27.5 points per 75 possessions on +2.7% relative true shooting. His pick-and-roll partner, Karl-Anthony Towns, remains one of the most offensively skilled bigs in league history. Their two-man game has been greasing the wheels of this offense all season -- forcing defenses into rotation, helping generating clean catch-and-shoot looks, cutting lanes, and second-chance opportunities for the rest of the roster.

What makes New York especially dangerous is their versatility. With Robinson healthy, they have flexibility to go big or small, change matchups, and throw different lineup combinations at Detroit. As good as Brunson is the key for the Knicks is don't fall too much in love with Brunson-Ball, because they have multiple avenues to generate offense, and the ability to shape-shift based on what the series demands.

A potential swing factor is the matchup between OG Anunoby and Cade. OG is a rare defender -- agile but strong enough to match power-based pick-and-roll creators like Cade. Nothing is truly one-on-one anymore with all the switching and transition play in today’s NBA, but OG gives New York a legitimate option to disrupt Cade’s rhythm and make him work for everything.

Pistons Advantage

Detroit might not have the star power, but they bring a level of physicality and toughness that New York will need to match.

They won’t be intimidated by the Knicks’ talent. In fact, they might make New York uncomfortable at times. The Pistons can throw multiple looks at Brunson, whether it’s Ausar Thompson, one of the league’s best on-ball defenders, or Dennis Schroder, a relentless point-of-attack pest.

Using Schroder opens the door to deploy Ausar on KAT, effectively daring New York to run its two-man game only for Detroit to switch it and force Towns into post-ups. From there, Detroit can send late doubles or dig down from the weak side, something teams have found success with this season.

New York has also struggled at times defending pick-and-roll, and Cade is one of the best operators in that action. With his size and vision, he can dissect virtually any coverage. He’s also developed into a confident pull-up shooter, giving him a counter to drop coverages or soft switches.

If the Pistons can repeatedly get KAT and Brunson into those actions it could create real problems for New York’s defense.

X-Factor

How much can Dennis Schroder impact this series?

The Pistons run a very heliocentric offense around Cunningham, and for the most part, they like it that way. Carrying the league's second largest load at 58.2%, Cade has his hands on the controls at all times, making every decision. But at some point, they’ll need another source of self-creation, and that's not just pindowns and flare screens for Malik Beasley or Tim Hardaway Jr. triples.

That’s exactly why they went out and got Schroder at the deadline. He’s a jitterbug guard who can run the second unit when Cade is off the floor, but also function as a secondary ball handler alongside him.

We’ll likely see a lot of Cade–Schroder lineups in this series, giving Cade the chance to play off the ball at times or simply have a release valve when the Knicks load up on him. It worked in the regular season: lineups featuring both guards are +10.5 per 100 possessions, with a scorching 124.2 offensive rating.

Prediction

I’m really intrigued by the Pistons in this series. They’ve got the defensive personnel to frustrate New York, and they have a true star in Cade who from what I've watched this season, is ready for the moment.

Yet in the end, I just don’t think it’s quite enough. The Knicks have more reliable offensive options beyond Brunson than the Pistons do beyond Cade. And while Detroit will have the defensive advantage, I also trust the Knicks' core -- guys with real playoff reps -- to elevate when it counts on that end.

A final finger should point to the fact that Jalen Brunson might be the best clutch-time player in the league right now, and in a series that’ll likely feature some tight, grind-it-out finishes, that matters.

Knicks in 6.

Boston Celtics (2) vs Orlando Magic (7)

Introducing the Series

At first glance, this might be the series most people skip over, but don’t be so quick to judge. Orlando’s offense can be ugly, but their elite defense keeps them in games against anyone. Meanwhile, Boston has a tendency to fall into offensive lulls, which could make for some surprisingly tight finishes.

This won’t be a pretty series. The Magic ranked 27th in offensive rating and dead last in three-point percentage (32.2%). Scoring 100 points feels like a win for them some nights. But their defense is real, and if Boston isn’t sharp with its halfcourt execution, they’ll get dragged into a grind-it-out series.

In the regular season, the Magic actually took the season series 2–1 against Boston. Of course, it’s tough to put too much weight on regular-season results -- players are often in and out of the lineup -- but it’s still worth noting: only two teams held the Celtics to a lower offensive rating this year than Orlando. Across their three matchups, Boston averaged just 106.4 points per 100 possessions, well below their season norm.

It’s also a fascinating matchup from a team-building standpoint. The Celtics are a polished product built around two elite two-way wings -- Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown -- with defense and shooting at every position. Orlando feels like they’re following a similar blueprint, just earlier in the process. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are their two-way offensive cornerstones, surrounded by switchable, defense-first role players. The difference is Boston’s ready to win now, while the Magic are still laying the foundation.

Celtics Advantage

Boston’s advantage? They’re still the most complete team in basketball.

The Celtics finished the season second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating, rarely needing to sacrifice one end of the floor for the other with rotations. Almost always having five two-way players who can all dribble, pass, and shoot on the court. For a Magic team that leans heavily on defense to make up for a shakey offense, it’s going to be especially difficult to overcome a group that plays at such a high level on both ends.

Magic Advantage

This Magic team defends with size and physicality across the board. Outside of Cole Anthony, everyone in their rotation is 6’6 or taller and takes pride in that end of the floor. Their bigs are both switchable and rim protectors, making them tough to break down. There are no easy mismatches, no small guards to bully, and no lazy coverages to exploit. These are the types of defenses Boston has occasionally struggled against -- teams that switch everything, stay home on shooters, and make you earn every single look.

X-Factor

Banchero is riding the best offensive stretch of his career with 29.1 points and 4.6 assists on 59.1% true shooting since March 1. His decision-making and shot selection still need work, but he’s in rhythm at the right time. If he levels up to playoff intensity, and Wagner follows suit, Orlando might just make things interesting.

In a series where points will be hard to come by, a couple of big performances from Orlando’s stars might be enough to make Boston sweat. Despite all their playoff pedigree, let’s not forget the Celtics haven’t even played in a Game 6 in nearly two years.

Prediction

I’m genuinely excited to see just how ugly Orlando can make this series. They’re going to scrap, switch, and claw their way into a few tight games. But Boston’s two-way balance is just too much for a one-dimensional Magic team still missing the offensive firepower to contend in the East.

Celtics in 5.

See You Round Two Top Seeds

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

I’m writing this on the Saturday morning before we get started, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. Not diving deep with categories like the other matchup previews.

The Grizzlies have absolutely no chance in this series.

I picked it to be a sweep, I fully expect it to be a sweep, and anything other than a sweep would honestly be shocking. The Thunder are just too good for a team like Memphis that’s completely sputtering to end the season.

Expect OKC to start by going under Morant pick-and-rolls. And even if he hits a few jumpers and gets going, they’ll just switch it up and start blitzing -- forcing guys like Zach Edey or Jaren Jackson Jr. to be decision-makers in the short roll. That’s not ideal. The Thunder have elite athletes everywhere who can rotate and recover on the back side like the blitz never even happened if your reads aren't quick.

No Jaylen Wells makes it even harder. He would’ve at least given Memphis a defensive card to play on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as we have seen in prior matches Memphis faceguard SGA and try to turn the game into a 4-on-4. Without him, that option is off the table.

The Thunder will make quick work of Memphis and then get ready for a second-round matchup -- whether it’s the Clippers or the Nuggets -- that should pose a much more interesting challenge.

Thunder in 4.

Cleveland Cavaliers (1) vs Miami Heat (8)

I'm not as certain this series will sweep like OKC’s, but at the same time, there just isn’t going to be enough consistent offense in Miami to keep up in any real way -- especially when you consider they are playing the number one offense in the league, and the number one half-court offense in Cleveland, generating 1.08 points per possession.

Cleveland's guards are going to generate advantages, the supporting cast has been lights out from three, and Miami simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace.

Outside of Tyler Herro, Miami doesn’t have a reliable shot creator. Bam Adebayo is an elite playoff performer, but that’s mostly due to his defensive versatility and connective playmaking, not because he’s a true No. 2 option offensively. Andrew Wiggins's number will give them offense here and there, and I’m sure Coach Spo will have a game where he's able to scheme Duncan Robinson loose and he catches fire, allowing his gravity to help grease the offensive wheels. But over the course of a full series, the Heat just don’t have the juice.

This version of the “zombie Heat” died when Jimmy Butler -- and his magically reappearing playoff jumper -- left in February.

I’ll give the core of Spo, Herro, and Bam (who’ve seen a ton of playoff success) and this wildcard version of Play-In Davion Mitchell one game because I'm not sure it's actually possible for the Heat to be swept.

Cavaliers in 5.

The Fast Break Forum's Postseason Bracket

My Official Playoff Predictions:

OKC in 4

LAC in 7

LAL in 5

HOU in 6

CLE in 5

IND in 7

NYK in 6

BOS in 5

OKC in 7

LAL in 6

IND in 7

BOS in 6

LAL in 6

BOS in 5

BOS in 5

Small Notes:

• I think the Clippers could do something similar to Indiana, but I didn’t want to bet on Kawhi’s health too much.

• I promise I have a healthy fear of Cleveland, they are an awesome team. However, in their matchups with Indiana this season there has certainly been some notable developments.

• The Lakers are a team that really can’t afford an injury to almost anybody, but if they can stay healthy I think they survive playing most minutes without a five. They will shrink the court against these players like Ant and SGA, and all those long rangy wings will be enough defensively.

• Boston is the best team, and assuming we don’t end up with a 2019 Warriors injury disaster, they will repeat.