2025 NBA Conference Finals Preview

Daniel Waddleton

May 20, 2025

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has long been obsessed with the idea of parity in the NBA. Ever since Cleveland and Golden State dominated the back half of the 2010s -- meeting in four straight NBA Finals -- he’s pushed for a league where more teams have a real shot at the title.

Well, mission accomplished.

With the Boston Celtics eliminated by the New York Knicks in six games last round, we’re now guaranteed a seventh consecutive season without a repeat champion, the longest such stretch in NBA history. In fact, none of the past six defending champs have even made it past the second round.

The parity doesn’t stop there. Of the four remaining teams, three have never won an NBA title. The lone exception? The Knicks, whose last championship came in 1973. This is parity in its purest form. One fanbase is about to experience something they’ve never felt before, or at least haven’t felt in over half a century.

There’s something for every type of NBA fan in this semi-final round. You want high-octane offense? Pace and space style? Games finishing with a combined score over 250? The Eastern Conference Finals is your series.

Prefer drugged-out slugfests? Defensive chess matches to stop dynamic guards? Games where the first to 100 wins? Welcome to the Western Conference Finals.

And if you just prefer enjoying the biggest and brightest young stars in the league facing off on the biggest stage, then this whole round is for you. Let’s dive into these conference finals matchups, the crown jewels of the postseason.

Eastern Conference

New York Knicks (3) vs Indiana Pacers (4)

How We Got Here

Knicks Road:

Round 1 - Defeated Detroit Pistons (44-38), 4-2

Round 2 - Defeated Boston Celtics (61-21), 4-2

Pacers Road:

Round 1 - Defeated Milwaukee Bucks (48-34), 4-1

Round 2 - Defeated Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18), 4-2

Knicks Advantage

For one, when you have the reigning Clutch Player of the Year on your team -- who leads the playoffs with 43 clutch points, 17 more than the next closest (Nikola Jokic) -- you start every close game with an edge. When a game comes down to the final five or six possessions, having someone who can create their own shot and make big-time plays matters. Jalen Brunson has been nails all year in those moments, and he’s the best pure shot-maker in this series. In the playoffs, sometimes that’s what it comes down to, who can consistently make the tougher shots.

Another edge for the Knicks should be the possession battle. They’ve grabbed 32.1% of their own misses this postseason, while Indiana ranks dead last among playoff teams at just 21.6%. Turnover margin between the two teams is basically even, so the Knicks should get more cracks at the apple throughout the series.

Of course, they’ll need to capitalize on the extra opportunities. A lot of those extra possessions come from Mitchell Robinson on the offensive glass, but he’s shooting just 37.5% from the free-throw line this postseason. Teams have resorted to fouling him anytime he gets the ball near the rim, forcing him to earn points at the line.

Pacers Advantage

Indiana wants to turn every game into a track meet, and they’re equipped to do so because of their depth. The Pacers have consistently gone 9–10 deep throughout the playoffs, getting real contributions from guys far down the bench. It’s what allows them to maintain their fast-paced, movement-heavy offense while also applying full-court pressure on defense.

Tyrese Haliburton leads the team at just 34.9 minutes per game, and 10 players are averaging over 10 minutes a night. Contrast that with the Knicks, where all five starters are logging over 36 minutes per game, and only two other players on the roster are averaging more than seven minutes. The Pacers should be the fresher team not just over the course of games, but across the series.

To be fair, Tom Thibodeau has prepared his team all year for this kind of workload (sometimes to the criticism of the media), and so far it’s held up. The Knicks have stayed poised late in games despite heavy minutes. However, they haven’t yet played a team like Indiana, whose goal is specifically to wear you down over 48 minutes. The Pacers’ depth has been a real advantage, and it’s manifested late in games throughout this postseason. In both rounds, they’ve mounted multiple improbable comebacks, looking noticeably fresher and more energized than their opponents when it mattered most.

X-Factor

One of the defining swing factors in this series will be the tug-of-war between New York’s offensive rebounding and Indiana’s transition game. If the Knicks crash the boards hard, they risk getting burned in transition. If the Pacers leak out early to run, they may surrender second-chance points. Something has to give. Which team blinks first?

Do the Knicks have to pull back on the glass to avoid getting torched on the break? Do the Pacers have to commit more bodies to the defensive glass and slow down their transition attack? The winner of that battle could very well win the series.

Another major X-factor: Pascal Siakam.

OG Anunoby has defended him well in the past, and that will be a fascinating one-on-one matchup. But it’s not just about that. Siakam has done much of his postseason damage against mismatches, using his combination of physicality and skill to dominate smaller defenders near the block. The Bucks and Cavaliers both had weak points he could exploit.

In this series, even when OG isn’t on him, Siakam will be switching onto Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, or even a tough, low-to-the-ground defender like Brunson despite the height mismatch. Those matchups may still be advantages for Siakam, but they won’t be nearly as soft as what he faced against guys like Ty Jerome or Damian Lillard in past rounds. If he can continue to punish switches anyway, that’ll be huge for Indiana.

Prediction

I’ve been flagging this for the entirety of the second half of the season, and I’ll say it again: since the calendar flipped to 2025, the Pacers have been one of the best teams in the league. They’re 34–14 since January 1st. They still have the high-octane, pace-and-space offense we have come to know from Indy, but now it’s paired with a disruptive pressure defense. This team has this rare combination of both pace and physicality on both ends.

I’m not buying the narrative that Indiana got “lucky” with injuries to opponents. I picked them to reach the Conference Finals before the postseason even began. The Pacers were going to pose major issues to both Milwaukee and Cleveland whether they were fully healthy or not.

The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season over the past two weeks, and it’s really hard to pick against this team the way the wings have been playing and Brunson's late game heroics. Yet, the Pacers have been sustaining this level for months. This is a 60-win-caliber team by performance metrics, and they’re better equipped than Boston was to expose New York’s weaknesses.

It’s not that Indiana is definitively better than Boston. But styles make fights, and Indiana’s style is a tougher matchup for New York. They’ll make Brunson and KAT work much harder in pick-and-roll actions. They also won't let the defense off the hook if the Knicks stifle the first action, as they will run tons of second-side actions, testing the Knicks’ ability to guard for a full 24 seconds. Where Boston was more methodical and easier to load up against, Indiana comes at you from what feels like every direction.

I think the Pacers get just enough stops to let their offense carry them home, especially with the way they’re shooting it (over 40% from three this postseason).

Pacers in 6.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (6)

How We Got Here

Thunder Road:

Round 1 - Defeated Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) 4-0

Round 2 - Defeated Denver Nuggets (50-32) 4-3

Timberwolves Road:

Round 1 - Defeated Los Angeles Lakers (50-32) 4-1

Round 2 - Defeated Golden State Warriors (48-34) 4-1

Thunder Advantage

This is, at the very least, the best defense of the pace-and-space era. I'd argue -- given how hard it is to defend in today’s NBA, with the floor spacing and immense offensive talent -- this might be the greatest relative defense of all time. But I’m only 21 years old, so I’ll tread lightly there.

What I do know is this: defense travels. And OKC’s is an absolute nightmare to deal with in every way imaginable.

They’re incredibly versatile, with the ability to size up with double-big lineups, downsize with Alex Caruso at center hounding bigs, or anything in between. They suffocate at the point of attack, they live in passing lanes, and are elite at protecting the rim. If you start turning the ball over, blink and they’ve hit you with an 11–0 run.

It’s almost impossible to create an advantage against them because they have no weak points to attack. They might have five or six All-Defensive Team candidates. It's very rare you score against this team and feel like it came easy. Their 106.6 defensive rating in the regular season was staggering. Their 101.6 rating in the playoffs -- while facing arguably the best offensive player ever in Nikola Jokic in the previous round -- is downright absurd.

If there’s been a single defining advantage in this postseason, it’s the Thunder’s defense against anybody’s offense.

Timberwolves Advantage

Minnesota’s calling card during this recent run of Western Conference Finals appearances has been their defense, however it’s their offensive depth that gives them an edge in this series.

Sure, there are some shaky spots -- Rudy Gobert’s limitations, Jaden McDaniels’ inconsistency -- but their eight-man playoff rotation features far more trusted offensive players than OKC's. The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and he’ll be the best offensive player in this series, but things get dicey after that. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are excellent all-around players, but neither appeared ready to carry second-option duties offensively in the previous round. The rest of the roster is connective tissue at best, not anybody prepared to drive offense.

OKC is just an alright spot-up shooting team, they don't get a ton of second chance points, and the offense can stall when teams load up on SGA. Minnesota, meanwhile, is a much better shooting team and will trust more options to take the wheel when necessary.

Julius Randle has been excellent this postseason -- averaging 24.7 points per 75 possessions on +5% true shooting -- and the Wolves are posting a 118.5 offensive rating with him on the floor. They’ve got shooting (four rotation players are over 35% from deep), multiple ball-handlers to combat OKC’s pressure, and tough shot-makers in Anthony Edwards and Randle who can score even against a near perfect defensive possession.

The Wolves' edge? Offensive versatility. They’ve got more guys they can trust to score and make plays when it matters.

X-Factor

OKC’s halfcourt offense might not be perfect, but it's rarely needed to be this postseason.

Through two rounds, they’re holding opponents to just 101.6 points per 100 possessions and forcing over 18 turnovers a game. They’re scoring over 21% of their total points off turnovers alone. Minnesota just coming off a series where they turned the ball over 18.4 times per game in Round 2 against Golden State.

Now they face a team that thrives on live-ball turnovers and fast breaks. This is the major swing factor in this series, can Minnesota take care of the ball enough to keep them in games?

Minnesota’s defense is still elite (109 defensive rating this postseason), and if this series slows into a halfcourt slugfest, they can hang. The swing point will be how well their offense can take care of the ball. Can they stay composed, avoid giveaways, and force the Thunder to execute in the halfcourt?

Because if the Wolves can do that, if they can force OKC to play in the halfcourt for 48 minutes, they’ve got a shot. But if they slip, even briefly, OKC will turn that lapse into a 15–2 run before you even realize what happened.

Prediction

Every young contender needs that series. The series that forces them to grow up fast, face real adversity, and come out stronger on the other side.

For OKC, that came in the last round.

Denver pushed them to the limit. Jokic was masterful at times even against an all-time great defense. The former champs led the series 1–0 and 2–1. OKC took those punches on the chin, regrouped, and responded. Now they come into this series with scars, confidence, and momentum.

Minnesota is tough. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, they’ll probably get a game where Edwards and Randle just make too many tough shots to lose, and another where two of Naz Reid, Nickell-Alexander Walker, or Donte DiVincenzo shoot the lights out when OKC collapses on Edwards.

But in the end, I don’t think they’ll be able to score consistently in the halfcourt against this defense. I think OKC’s pressure will wear them down. The Thunder are a team of runs, and I expect a few backbreaking ones in this series.

Thunder in 6. And maybe a couple blowouts along the way.

Thunder in 6.